July 15 “Gold (XAU/USD) The Future” | Strategies Derived from Technical Analysis × Institutional Investor Data
Hello, this is Ikura.
Hello. As always, regarding “Gold,”Technical analysis + COT (Commitment of Traders) = Institutional investors’ order flowI will explain it.
Hello. This is Ikura.
In this article, “Gold (XAU/USD)” price action will be thoroughly analyzed by combining technical analysis with the COT report (speculative positions).
✅ Will the long-term uptrend continue?
✅ Could there be a near-term drop?
✅ How are big players (institutional investors) moving now?
Answering these questions, let’s search for the next promising entry point.
?1. Monthly View: The Big Picture Trend of Gold
Currently, gold isin a clear uptrend on the monthly chart.
Looking at past price action, there have been repeats of “new highs → pullback → new highs,” and large buyers (long positions) are thought to be behind that.
However, one should notethat every trend has pullbacks.
In other words, the next development is likely a short-term pullback (a temporary decline),creating a potential pullback low on the monthly chart.
?2. Weekly: A Sign of Trend Reversal?
On the weekly chart, there have been phases wherebreakouts from triangles (consolidations) occurredto drive the price higher.
But the current situation has changed.
Three consecutive failures to make a new high（＝triple top）
Price around highs ismoving sideways (range)
These are signs of “slowing momentum.
In other words, the pullback phase forecast on the monthly chartis becoming more likely to begin within the weekly chart area.
?3. Daily: Short-Term Pattern Formation and Signs of Rebound
On the daily chart, a W formation is observed.
However this time,it is an “over-extended W” that jumped up past the neckline.
In such cases,a pullback toward the neckline often occurs.
?4. COT Report: Position Movements of Institutional Investors
Looking at gold’s COT (Commitment of Traders) data:
Long positions: 261,000 contracts
Short positions: 58,000 contracts
→Overwhelmingly bullish (long) positions. In other words, institutions are still looking at the market with a bullish bias.
However, the latest report shows an increase in short positions as well,making a short-term pullback a plausible scenario.
?5. Summary: Future Strategy
| Timeframe | Direction | Notes || --- |
--------------| --------------- |
| Monthly |Uptrend continues| Possible pullback
| Weekly |Range (triple top)| Signals of an upcoming pullback
| Daily |W-bottom → pulling back from a high| Possible drop to the neckline
| COT |Longs dominate but shorts may rise in the short term| |
| Timeframe | Direction | Notes || --- |
--------------| --------------- |
| Monthly |Uptrend continues| Possible pullback
| Weekly |Range (triple top)| Signals of an upcoming pullback
| Daily |W-bottom → pulling back from a high| Possible drop to the neckline
| COT |Longs dominate but shorts may rise in the short term| |
✅ Future Scenarios
Short-term (days to weeks): pullback ↓ potential drop to neckline
Medium to long term: after pullback, another rise → expectation of new highs
Short-term (days to weeks): pullback ↓ potential drop to neckline
Medium to long term: after pullback, another rise → expectation of new highs
【Remaining 13 spots】
Win rate 100% continues, profit rate surpasses 150%
【Semi-discretionary EA・Capital Recovery Logic】
