July 11 "Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook" | Strategy derived from Technicals × Institutional Investor Data

Hello, this is Ikura.

Hello. As always, about “gold,”using Technical Analysis + COT (Commitment of Traders) = institutional investors’ order flowI will explain.

Points

• Long-term trend analysis (technical)

• Institutional investor order flow (COT report)
  Combining these two, we read high-probability patterns of the next possible moves.

---

✅ Long-term trend on the monthly chart: a strong uptrend

• Gold is in a clearuptrend.

• Looking back,Impulse (up) → Accumulation (correction) → Re-accelerationis the structure.

• Recentlynew highs have just been made,
  future flow is expected to be Higher Low (correction) → new highs again.

? In other words, from the monthly view, a temporarypullback = a buying opportunity is highly likely.

---

✅ Weekly: buying power appears to be losing steam

• The weekly chart also showed an uptrend, but
  　recently failed to make a new high, and the ascent has slowed.

• This aligns with the monthly chart’s correction phase and
  　signals a short-term downsidepoint to watch.

---

✅ Daily: support rebound observed, but…

• However, that wasa temporary rally, and
  in the current situation, there is a possibility of another move downward.

---

✅ Movement of institutions seen in the COT report (gold futures)

• Net position (long - short) declined from “200,000 contracts” to “195,000 contracts”

  • ➤ Long position:reduced by 4,500 contracts

  • ➤ Short position:increased by 1,100 contracts

This data indicates thatinstitutional investors are turning more bearish in the short term.

---

✅ Key point going forward: whether this support breaks

There is a support level to watch now.
If this levelbreaks clearly downward,

• that support couldturn into resistance

• be a point where sellers come back in

Also,the net position in the COT could decrease further.

---

✅ Summary: the next move depends on this “structural breakdown”

• Long term: uptrend (though a correction phase may begin)

• Mid term: buying power weakening

• Short term: potential upside for a rebound if support breaks

?Break & retest + increase in institutional selling could materialize,
which might lead to a full-scale monthly-chart correction.

【Remaining 15 spots】

Winning rate 100% continues, profit rate exceeds 100%

【Semi-discretionary EA – capital recovery logic】https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64816