June 18, "Gold (XAU/USD) Future" | Strategy derived from Technicals × Institutional Investor Data
Hello, this is Ikura.
We deliver a practical market commentary centered on Gold (XAU/USD) that combines technical analysis with COT data (institutional investor trends).
In this article, we will carefully unwind the current market situation and consider the next move.
This article provides the latest analysis on Gold (XAU/USD).
The content is divided into two parts:
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Technical analysis (multi-timeframe)
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Order flow analysis using COT (Commitment of Traders) data
By combining these, we derive a high-probability scenario for the next price action of gold.
Monthly: Bullish trend breaking historic resistance
The current gold market isin a clear uptrend on the monthly level. For several years, the price has beenmaking higher highs and higher lows, and the recent up move was also very strong.
It has broken above an important resistance line that had functioned since 2020, followed by a test,now acting as a new support. This is a typical pattern ofbreak → test → trend acceleration.
Weekly: forming a re-advance from pullbacks
On the weekly chart, market structure remains in a rising trend,with higher highs and higher lows continuing. Recently, the phase of pullbacks appears to be forming in preparation for a new high,toward a fresh high, suggesting the next wave may be a new high.
Daily: resistance → support transition and overlapping Fibonacci levels
On the daily chart, a significant breakout has occurred. By breaking above the previously watched resistance band,the market structure has shifted back to bullish.
Moreover, this price zone overlaps with the following elements:
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Past resistance → current support
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Fibonacci retracements (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%)
This creates a buying confluence zone (overlap of multiple supporting factors), increasing the likelihood of buying by institutional investors.
COT (Commitment of Traders) and the activity of institutional investors
Reviewing COT data reveals the activity of institutional investors.
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Long positions: 234,000 →245,000 increasing
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Short positions: 76,000 →58,000 decreasing
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Net position: 161K →187K rising
This indicates that institutional investors have shifted to aclear bullish stance on gold, supporting further upside pressure.
