July 2: "Gold (XAU/USD) Going Forward" | Strategies derived from Technicals × Institutional Investor Data

Hello, this is Ikura.

Hello. As always, about the “gold”:we will explain using Technical Analysis + COT (Commitment of Traders) = institutional investors’ order flow.

Key points

• ✅ Monthly/Weekly/Daily basis technical analysis

• ✅ Verify institutional positions using the COT report

• ✅ Hypotheses of high-probability scenarios going forward

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1. Monthly Analysis: Upward Trend from Historic Resistance

• On a monthly base, a strong rising trend continues, with both highs and lows moving higher.

• The starting point of the rise isthe breakout of a zone that was historically a long-term resistance.

• Breaking above this zone andretesting it as supporthas provided confirmation of the bullish trend.

?In the near term, a consolidation phase is possible
Reason: An uptrend typically repeats “upward move → pullback → upward move,” so a pullback often occurs before the next “new high.”

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2. Weekly Analysis: Rejection at Resistance and Potential Support Zones

• In the most recent weekly view, price faced two rejections at past highs (resistance).

• As a pullback candidate to watch isthe zone that previously functioned as resistance and then became support after a breakout.

• If price returns to this area,a bounce supported by institutional buying (longs) is likely.

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3. COT Report (Changes in Institutional Positioning)

• According to the latest COT (Commitment of Traders) data:

  • Long positions: 256,000 contracts

  • Short positions: 61,000 contracts

  • →Longs to Shorts ratio is about 4:1, indicating strong bullish sentiment

? However in the most recent week:

• Closed 4,500 longs

• Added 1,100 shorts

➡ The background for the short-term failure to break higher suggests light position adjustment (taking profits and selling) by institutions.

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4. Daily Chart & Instruction: Next Rebound Points

• On the daily chart, there remains room for downside anda path to a support zone (demand zone).

• When the price reaches this support zone,if institutions begin accumulating longs again:

  • All timeframes (monthly, weekly, daily) align bullishly

  • If COT data also shows a reversal,this could present a high-probability buy opportunity

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5. In One Word

• Trading is not about predicting; it is about reacting.

• Recommend adopting a stance of entering after a reversal signal on shorter timeframes (4 hours or less).

• A long scenario becomes valid when there is a rebound at the daily support plus a reconstruction of institutional longs.

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Summary

Key points to watch going forward

• Monthly bullish trend continues; pullback before a high is updated

• Weekly resistance areas and reach of pullback target zones; daily downside room remains

• Daily support zones show potential rebound; COT long positions remain strong (long-term)

• Timing for institutional re-entry; watch for reach of support and confirmation of instructional buy; monitor for signs of a short-term rebound

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