円高はまだまだ進む？
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Now, the theme this time isUSD/JPY Exchange Rate.
The chart below shows the yield gap between the U.S. 10-year and 2-yearTreasury notes and the USD/JPY rate.
＜As of January 12, 2018＞
10-year: 2.550%
2-year: 2.002%
When expectations for higher interest rates emerge, typically the 10-year yield rises and the yield gap between the 2-year and 10-year widens.
As a result, the dollar tends to be bought.
On the other hand, looking at the current situation
☆ Because the FF rate is rising, the 2-year yield is increasing
☆ Meanwhile, inflation is not rising much, so the 10-year yield does not rise as much.
☆ As a result, the 2-year–10-year yield spread is narrowing.
This is actually a selling factor for the dollar.
If you overlay the USD/JPY rate with past interest rate differentials
☆ From 2016 to mid-2017, it showed a very high correlation.
☆ Since September 2017, that correlation has weakened, and the USD/JPY has been slow to fall.
In the future, it would be nice if the 10-year yield rises, but if expectations for an FF rate hike disappear, I believe a rapid appreciation of the yen could occur.
This is a metric to watch.
Note) The above reflects my opinion and is intended solely to improve financial literacy. Therefore, it was not created for investment solicitation. Also, the blog content is based on data from reliable sources, but the administrator does not guarantee its accuracy. Please make the final investment decisions at your own responsibility.
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