Probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in 2018
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Now, the theme for this time isThe Probability of a 2018 U.S. Interest Rate Hike.
The table below shows the forecast for the level of the U.S. FF rate at the time of the November 2018 FOMC.
2017
December 8, 1 month ago
+25bp 9.7% 22.8% (If rates are raised in December 2017, at this level)
+50bp 31.4% 40.7% (After December 2017 rate hike, the level of 25bp rate hike in 2018)
+75bp 36.2% 26.9% (After December 2017 rate hike, the level of 50bp rate hike in 2018)
+100bp 18.2% 8.0% (After December 2017 rate hike, the level of 75bp rate hike in 2018)
+125bp 4.1% 1.1% (After December 2017 rate hike, the level of 100bp rate hike in 2018)
+150bp 0.5% 0.1% (After December 2017 rate hike, the level of 125bp rate hike in 2018)
Compared with one month ago, the likelihood that there will be two rate hikes in 2018 has risen from 26.9% to 36.2%.
As this figure rises, it implies broader expectations of widening U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials, which tends to tilt toward a weaker yen.
Note) The above reflects my personal view and is intended solely to improve financial literacy. Therefore, it is not created for investment solicitation. Also, while the blog content is based on data from reliable sources, the administrator does not guarantee its accuracy. The final decision on actual investments should be made by each individual at their own risk.
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