Things to consider before trading for January 2018
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Now, the theme isThings to consider before trading for January 2018 expiration.
When trading options, I think it is important to imagine the next one month for each expiration month.
【Seasonal factors】
＜Japanese individual investors＞
☆ For individual investors, the January expiration is the only expiration where the tax year splits into two years.
☆ Including FX and CFDs, you need to consider taxable income.
★ Since many people may already be profitable this year, individual loss-rebalancing trades in spot stocks may also occur.
＜Japanese corporations＞
★ For some corporations, December 末 is not necessarily the fiscal year-end.
＜Foreign investors＞
★ Foreign investors will be taking Christmas holidays.
On the other hand, the New Year work resumes in earnest from the 2nd.
The Japanese stock market starts on Thursday, January 4, but the currency market is open even before then.
Therefore, during the New Year holidays, it is necessary to consider the possibility of sharp exchange rate fluctuations.
【Current Analysis】
★ The United States is very likely to raise rates in December.
However, a 0.25% rate hike is probably already priced in.
Going forward, the focus will be on how many rate hikes occur in 2018.
★ Risk factors
United States (tax reform, Russia investigation)
Europe (Brexit, German political situation, finances of Southern Europe)
Middle East (Saudi internal affairs, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem)
Japan (Kake Gakuen issue)
North Korea, etc.
【Other】
★ The January 2018 expiration has five weeks until the SQ (Special Quotation) date.
Therefore, the potential range of the Nikkei Average becomes wider even with the same volatility.
With all of the above in mind, let us tackle the January 2018 expiration. The same monthly strategy is not always appropriate.
Note) The above is my personal view and is intended solely to improve financial literacy. It is not created for investment solicitation. Also, while the blog contents are based on data from reliable sources, the administrator does not guarantee their accuracy. Please make actual investment decisions at your own risk.
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