えんむすびAI
- Whole period
- 2 years
- 1 year
- 6 months
- 3 months
- 1 month
Forward testing (Profit)
Monthly Statistics
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
Calendar for Months
About EA's Strategy
Translating...
その目で見てください
毎日の運用をライブ配信で見てから、納得して選べます。
✓ 単一通貨ペアだけでなく、複数の円クロスに分散して回したい
✓ EAが「なぜ今そう動いたのか」を、自分の言葉で知りたい
✓ 機械学習やブラックボックスではなく、理由の見えるルールが好き
✓ 損切りなし型のリスクを理解したうえで、回復を待つ運用に納得したい
✓ 日本らしい世界観のある、長く付き合えるEAを探している
えんむすびは、縁結びであり、円結びです。USDJPY・GBPJPY・EURJPYという3つの“円”の縁を見守り、仲間から離れて出遅れた一輪だけを、そっと拾って結んでいくEAです。
桜は、散っても必ずまた咲きます。このEAも、含み損を抱えた局面では損切りをせず、根を張って回復を待つ設計です。満開を急がず、時を待つ。その姿を、桜になぞらえました。
毎時、3銘柄の直近の値動きをATRで正規化して比較。仲間より1.0ATR以上出遅れた銘柄の買いを始めます。
価格が1.0ATR逆行するごとに、同じロットで静かに買い足し。平均建値を下げて回復に備えます。
平均建値+1.0ATRに届いた瞬間、バスケットを全決済。一輪ずつ、確実に結んでいきます。
※損切りは行いません。含み損を抱えても決済せず、回復(プラス転換)を待つ設計です。リスクは後述します。
本EAのAIは、機械学習ではなくルールベースの推論エンジン(エキスパートシステム)です。相場と口座の状態を読み取り、なぜ今そう動いたのかを、すべてチャート上の「縁結び処」パネルに日本語で表示します。外部通信・DLLは使いません。
このAIが持つ権限は「新しい買いを止める/待つ」だけです。走行中の回復システム(買い足し)を途中で止める権限は、あえて持たせていません。危機の最中に買い足しを止めると、かえって回復が遠のくことが検証で確認されたためです。ボラ急拡大・急落・スプレッド異常・維持率低下を察知すると、その銘柄(または全体)の新規だけを静かに見送ります。
| 検証期間 | 2015年〜2026年(約11年・実データM15) |
| 条件 | 初期100万円 / 0.01ロット × 3銘柄 |
| 純利益 | +44.9万円(0.01ロット×3での検証。純利益はロット数に比例し、下のドローダウン%は変わりません) |
| 最大ドローダウン | 7.3% |
| リカバリーファクター | 6.16(検証期間を前半・後半に分けても安定) |
| 最悪含み損 | −7.1万円(0.01ロット×3) |
| 頑健性テスト | 全面的な円高が30%・50%進んでも破綻ゼロ(ドローダウン7〜9%で生存) |
※リカバリーファクターは「純利益÷最大ドローダウン」で、数字が大きいほど効率よくドローダウンから回復していることを示します。数値は簡易な検証によるもので、実際の約定とは差が出ます。バックテストは過去の実績であり、将来の利益を保証するものではありません。
本EAは損切りを行わない設計です。桜が冬を越すように含み損を抱えて回復を待ちますが、検証期間を超えるような急速で一方向の円高が来た場合、口座が破綻する可能性があります。これは損切りなし型に共通する、避けられないリスクです。
推奨資金は0.01ロット×3銘柄あたり15万円(検証での最悪含み損7.1万円に、安全係数2倍をかけた目安)。ロットを上げる場合は同じ比率で資金も増やしてください(ドローダウン%はロットによらず一定です)。あくまで検証範囲での目安であり、検証を超える急速な円高では破綻もありえます。必ず余裕資金で運用してください。
| プラットフォーム | MetaTrader 5(MT5) |
| 通貨ペア | USDJPY / GBPJPY / EURJPY(3銘柄を内部で自動取得) |
| 設置 | USDJPYのチャート1枚に適用するだけ(時間足M15) |
| 取引タイプ | 買い専用グリッド(ナンピン)/ ヘッジング口座推奨 ※同一銘柄で複数の買い玉を個別に保有するためヘッジング口座が必要です。買いと売りを同時に持つ「両建て」はしません。 |
相場で一番つらいのは、含み損を抱えているときに「このEAは今、何を考えているのか」が見えない不安だと思います。だから私は、判断の理由をすべて日本語で語るAIにしました。
3つの円の縁を見守り、出遅れた一輪を静かに拾う。散っても、また咲く。そんな桜のような気の長さで、相場と付き合うためのEAです。
待つ強さを、桜から。えんむすびAI。
※本商品は情報提供を目的としており、投資の勧誘を目的としたものではありません。掲載している検証結果は過去の実績であり、将来の利益を保証するものではありません。本EAは損切りを行わない設計のため、相場急変時には大きな損失や口座破綻のリスクがあります。FX取引は元本割れのリスクを伴います。投資判断はご自身の責任において行ってください。
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working
