Kelly money management type USDJPY scalping_M1
- Whole period
- 2 years
- 1 year
- 6 months
- 3 months
- 1 month
Forward testing (Profit)
Monthly Statistics
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
Calendar for Months
About EA's Strategy
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Introduction: Design Philosophy of This System
Predicting the future of the foreign exchange market with precision is extremely challenging.
This system, "Kelly Capital Management Type USDJPY Scalping M1," is not built to be optimistic about the market's future and chase excessive profits,“how to limit losses and minimize damage when the market moves drastically”as the foremost defensive perspective.
We do not employ high-risk techniques such as averaging down or martingale,“always finish trades with at most one position”as a conservative design principle.
Basic Specifications and Risk Management Features
- Target Currencies/Timeframes: USDJPY (U.S. Dollar / Yen) / M1 (1-minute chart) only
- Maximum Open Positions: Up to 1 position (no averaging down or hedging)
- Maximum Stop Loss (SL): 18 pips (strictly limits losses even in unexpected rapid moves)
- 90-Minute Time Stop: If a position has been held for 90 minutes, it will automatically be closed at market price to prevent entanglement.
- Smart Cost Base Escape: When unrealized profit reaches +5.5 pips, the SL automatically moves to “cost +1.5 pips” to secure profits.
- Trailing Stop: After unrealized profit exceeds +8.5 pips, it trails in 2.0-pip steps to prevent leaving profits on the table.
- 3-Loss Circuit Breaker: If there are three consecutive losses, the system will stop entries for 30 minutes to protect the account in case of market disruption.
Overview of the Logic: Roles by Time Zone
Dollar/Yen tends to be range-bound in some hours and trend-prone in others. This EA switches between two approaches according to the situation.
In relatively calm market hours, entries are made only when Bollinger Bands (2.2σ) and RSI and the volatility contraction on higher timeframes (M5) indicate a mean-reversion regime as determined by the Hurst exponent. Profit targets are set modestly at 12 pips with early profit-taking in mind.
During active market hours, confirm the alignment of short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages and the break of recent highs/lows. Additionally, use smoothed price by Kalman filter and Hurst exponent trend confirmation, applying trend-following only in momentum-rich situations.
Objective Verification Data for a 4-Logic Non-Correlated Portfolio
Aggregating funds into a single EA can cause assets to stagnate when that logic does not align with the market.
Our development team has built a non-correlated portfolio of the four logics by diversification across currency pairs (USDJPY × EURUSD) and timeframes (M1 scalping × H1 swing), and calculated Pearson product-moment correlations based on daily PnL data.
| Logic Name | Currency/TF | ① USDJPY M1 | ② EURUSD M1 | ③ EURUSD H1 | ④ USDJPY H1 | Correlation Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① USDJPY Scalping M1 (This Work) | USDJPY (M1) | 1.000 | -0.053 | +0.006 | +0.023 | Ideal Negative/Zero Correlation |
| ② EURUSD Scalping M1 | EURUSD (M1) | -0.053 | 1.000 | +0.004 | -0.032 | Ideal Negative/Zero Correlation |
| ③ EURUSD Swing H1 | EURUSD (H1) | +0.006 | +0.004 | 1.000 | +0.027 | Completely Uncorrelated |
| ④ USDJPY Swing H1 | USDJPY (H1) | +0.023 | -0.032 | +0.027 | 1.000 | Ideal Negative/Zero Correlation |
・Statistically, a correlation coefficient below 0.10 is considered essentially independent (uncorrelated).
・This EA remains inverse-correlated with EURUSD M1 (-0.053) and completely uncorrelated with USDJPY H1 swing (+0.023).
★Total Net Profit of the 4 Major Logics:+60,526,245 yen (7.05x asset growth!)。Of course, running it standalone or in combination with other logics creates a robust portfolio that dramatically offsets drawdown across strategies.
Notes for Use
- Backtests and past correlation verification data are simulations based on performance in a past fixed period anddo not guarantee future market conditions or profits.
- Due to the nature of M1 (1-minute) scalping, trading costs (spreads and slippage) have a strong impact. We recommend operating on accounts with narrow spreads or in ECN environments with low spreads.
- The initial setting uses Kelly-based compound interest calculation (risk 1.0%), but until you acclimate to market conditions, we recommend starting with fixed lot sizing (e.g., 0.10 Lot) on a simple calculation basis.
- Please plan a reasonable operation within adequate surplus funds.
Price: $189.14 (taxed)
¥29,800(taxed)
●Payment
Sales from : 10/30/2026 06:11
Price: $189.14 (taxed)
¥29,800(taxed)
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working
