Synapse GOLD+SILVER

Basic Information

About the Strategy (Body)

Win rate is about 38.5%.

Instead, this EA is designed so you can verify “why you can trust these numbers” before purchase.

What’s inside the strategy

A long-only trend-following strategy targeting gold and silver. It detects high price breakouts on an H1 chart for entry, and uses ATR-based stops and trailing stops to enforce “small losses, big gains.”

The win rate of 38.5% is by design, and the average win greatly exceeds the average loss (about 2.1x in actual testing), establishing an edge over 20 years.

Nandina/martingale is not used.

All positions have a stop loss.

If account equity falls from its peak by a fixed percentage (default 30%), all positions close and auto-stop activates.

In other words, the maximum possible loss is pre-determined from the start.

Verification

Backtest figures can be made to look better depending on how they are produced. To avoid that, I conducted the following all.

① Verification over 20 years and multiple eras.Not only recent favorable markets, but 20 years since 2006—from the Lehman crisis, the 2013–2015 precious metal decline period (the worst period for this EA), including 2022 corrections—were tested, and it has run for 20 years.

② Environmental calibration with two real brokers.Compared the custom testing environment with Exness real data and OANDA real data to ensure alignment. In 20 years of gold data, signs of annual profit were almost identical, correlation 0.97. Confirmed the test environment does not deviate from reality.

③ Verification including swap (interest adjustments).Carrying costs apply to long precious metal positions. Many backtests ignore this, but this EA tests with swap reflected from OANDA real data.

④ Disclosure of worst-case.The deepest drawdown over 20 years reached about 28% on margin. This EA is designed to auto-stop when equity drops -30% from peak, andthis stop line sits just above the deepest drawdown of the past 20 years.This is not something to hide; it is a disclosure that a safety mechanism to stop losses at -30% sits just above a potential valley. If the future is slightly worse than the past, auto-stop may trigger.

Performance metrics (OANDA Securities Real Data 20 years, swap included, default H1／Risk1.0%／Lock30)

About Risk Settings

• Default is Risk 1.0% (H1 timeframe・EquityLock 30%).The above performance figures are measured with this default configuration.

• Risk% does not change the contents of trades.Changing RiskPercent keeps the same entry/exit timing, but the position size per trade (lot) scales proportionally. If you want to be more conservative, lower RiskPercent. Trades remain the same, drawdown and returns scale proportionally.

• Be careful when increasing Risk%.Increasing risk deepens drawdown toward the default EquityLock 30%. To avoid triggering locks under normal fluctuations, raise EquityLock% together when increasing risk.

• Even higher/lower risk settings are possible in input, but anything outside the above default configuration (Risk1.0%＋Lock30) is outside tested range, so proceed at your own risk.

• RiskMode=AutoBySwapIf selected, the EA measures your account’s swap costs and automatically adjusts applied risk% for lightweight vs heavyweight accounts (accounts that cannot be judged will default to the safer option).

Limitations of Verification

• We have verified the worst-case scenario of the past 20 years, but cannot guarantee the future beyond that.

• As noted above, the 20-year deepest drawdown (about 28%) sits just below the auto-stop line (-30%). If the future is slightly worse than the past, the -30% auto-stop may trigger. Stopping means cutting losses at -30% as designed for safety.

• Swap levels and spreads vary by your broker and affect performance. Accounts with lower swap costs (including swap-free) are more favorable.

• Symbols can be left blank (auto-detect). The EA will automatically resolve the gold/silver symbols for your account based on the chart instrument (including suffix differences like XAUUSDm / XAUUSD.r / GOLD, etc.). The verified configuration is for gold + silver only; other instruments are at your discretion.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Why is the win rate 38.5% low?A. It is by design for trend-following. It cuts losses small many times, and lets large trends run, so the average win greatly exceeds the average loss (about 2.1x). A high win rate and continued winning are not the same thing.

Q. Which account can I use it on?A. An MT5 account that can trade CFDs for gold and silver. One CFD account can operate both gold and silver. Three factors can affect performance when choosing an account: ① swap level (lower is better; swap-free is more favorable than the published figures) ② spread (accounts with gold consistently above $0.5 are not ideal for entries) ③ same account can trade both gold and silver (required). The instrument names will be auto-detected with the empty field, so you don't need to worry about broker suffix differences.

Q. Do swap-free accounts change performance?A. Yes, it improves. The published figures exclude swap costs; removing those costs makes the conditions more favorable than the published results. However please check account terms for any swap alternative fees or holding period restrictions. Keep the risk settings as default (price fluctuation risk remains the same).

Q. How much can I lose in the worst case?A. With the default settings, you will auto-close and stop if equity drops by 30% from peak. There may be slight overshoot in extraordinary market moves (weekend gaps), but there is no structure that lets losses grow without bound (no averaging down or no SL). The deepest drawdown in the past 20 years is about 28%, and the stop line sits just above it.

Q. What is the recommended margin?A. Because it uses risk% method, it auto-adjusts to balance; with a 0.01 lots minimum, about 1,000,000 JPY (or approximately 1,000,000 units of base currency) is suggested.

Q. Why two instruments, gold and silver?A. Based on backtesting results. We evaluated multiple instruments including copper and USDJPY across 20-year data and kept only combinations that improved risk-adjusted performance.