basic510～ultra-low-cost mid-rate strategy that eliminates wasteful entries

An Automatic Trading Strategy with an Assumed Annual Rate of 30% for You

Evidence that Backtest Exceeds the Assumed 30% Annual Rate

Please start by looking at this. A backtest result of the ultra-simple Gotō-day EA “basic510.”

・Backtest over 10 years (October 2016 to September 2025) ・Initial capital: 10,000 (USD) ・10-year return: 31,756 (USD) ・10-year maximum drawdown: 1,517 (USD) ※ TDS, spread fixed at 1 pip, no slippage In other words, with an initial capital of 10,000 (USD), the maximum drawdown (the deepest trough where funds are most depleted) is 1,517 (USD), so when tested with a lot size that yields a maximum drawdown of about 15% over 10 years, the result was 31,756 (USD).Dividing this by 10 gives 3,175 (USD). That is 31.75% of the starting capital of 10,000 (USD), which means this EA has an expected annual return rate of 30%This is, of course, an assumption. Fully passive automated tradingin consideration,is it not a explosive return rate?

Aligning risk is essential

For this type of investment performance to be meaningful, risk must be aligned to a constant level based on maximum drawdown. For instance, for this EA, if the maximum drawdown in the 10-year backtest is 90%, the assumed annual return would be 180%. Of course, if the maximum drawdown reaches 90% even in an ultra-high-risk setting, a single loss would bankrupt the account. After all, such high-leverage trading is only possible if certain conditions are met.Starting with 1,000,000 JPY and the worst-case asset decrease being minus 150,000 JPY is the drawdown we consider appropriate, i.e., a 15% maximum drawdown.This drawdown can be updated at any time, and a downturn about twice the assumed drawdown is not uncommon. If the maximum drawdown is set at 15%, a downturn of 30% would be experienced if it doubles, which is probably tolerable mentally. However, if set to 25%, losing half the funds results in a 50% drawdown, causing many to abandon the strategy. With such realistic risk settings in mind, we advocate comparing returns within FX industry contexts. With a maximum drawdown of 15% and an assumed annual return of 30%,after about three years the funds should theoretically doublesince this is simple interest, and if you add trading profits and labor compensation, asset growth would be even faster.

Why Gotō Day + Mid-price is a Chance

Japan’s enduring business custom

This EA’s strategy is based on the Gotō day mid-price.Gotō day ⇒ the 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, and 30th days. In Japanese business practice, settlements (payments) are often made on these days. Mid-price ⇒ the exchange rate for the day determined by banks. It is decided at 9:55 AM.On Gotō days, especially importers make payments, buying dollars and selling yen (creating upward pressure on USD/JPY). Banks preemptively buy dollars to respond to this movement. Such pressure occurs before the day’s price determination at the mid-price, making USD/JPY more likely to rise from the night before Gotō day to 9:55 AM. Moreover, after 9:55, as settlements for the risen USD/JPY come in, USD/JPY tends to fall again.

More than 15 years of winning Gotō Day trading is brutally simple

The above chart shows the backtest of this automated trading from 2010 to 2025.Has been consistently winning for 15 years with a rising trendclear at a glance. In other words,a simple strategy of buying based on the mid-price on Gotō day’s pre-day, and selling after 9:55, has continued to win for at least the last 15 yearsas evidenced. Because this long-standing tendency exists, it is expected to continue for a while, and even if it ceases once, there is a good chance it will rebound again. This is rooted in Japan’s traditional business practices.Unless many importers stop settling on Gotō days, this edge will persistin our view.

The ultimate simple Gotō Day EA, “basic510,” with minimal waste

In fact, not only basic510 but many Gotō Day EAs exist. The basic strategy is the same, but variants include spreading entries across several positions, not trading during certain periods, or aiming to extend profits with trailing stops. Among such elder Gotō Day EAs, there are many excellent ones. Among them, we purposely chosebasic510 as the most simple EA. No unnecessary features.There is no replacement-entry (entering on days that are not Gotō days when the Gotō day falls on a weekend). It’s purely mechanical: buy on Gotō day, then sell. The settings screen is also just this simple.Except for the Lot, there is no need to alter anything else.

Exploring the potential of basic510 through backtests

Let's delve further into this EA’s potential.

① Profit Factor (PF) is 1.68

PF is something that might seem less important. It is calculated as total profit divided by total loss, and a value above 1 indicates a positive strategy. Its clarity is a strength, and it tends to draw attention. The 1.68 figure for this EA is good. PF is more about avoiding strategies with unrealistically high numbers. Generally, bigger is better, but for example, a PF of 10 is suspicious: the amount lost when you fail would be too small to be realistic. It may indicate overfitting or attempts to avoid losses with averaging down.

② Number of trades: 904 over 10 years

This is a crucial figure. If annualized, about 90 trades per year. With 52 weeks in a year, that’s roughly 1.8 trades per week. In other words, the number of trades is relatively low, aligning with the goal of a simple EA as mentioned earlier.If you trade infrequently, it can be less exciting. There is virtually no thrill. However, the more trades you make, the more you pay spread costs, which reduces returns.For similar strategies, fewer unnecessary entries mean lower fees and better performance.

③ Expected profit is about $35 (0.1 lots)

Expected profit means the anticipated profit per trade. This backtest trades at 0.9 lots (90,000 units) to keep the maximum drawdown at 15%. Therefore, the expected profit for 0.1 lots (10,000 units) is just under $4. If USD/JPY is 150 yen, then the expected profit per trade for 10,000 units would be just under 600 yen. For currency pairs with yen components like USD/JPY, 1 pip equals 100 yen. That is,Under this EA, even if account selection or slippage increases spread by 1 pip, profits decrease but the strategy remains profitable overall.and continues to be profitable.Strategies with higher expected profits tend to have higher spread toleranceand this basic510 is a prime example.

④ Win rate is a reasonably high 58%

Win rate is simple to understand and attracts attention, but higher is not always better, nor is lower automatically worse. It must be balanced with profitability. Still, all else equal, higher win rate generally stabilizes performance statistically, and people enjoy winning trades more, so a naturally higher win rate is favorable. This EA’s 58% win rate represents an ideal level of win-rate performance.

basic510 settings are only this

Currency pair: USD/JPY

Time frame: 1-minute chart

Account: Works with MT4 accounts anywhere