MonteCarloKing_USDJPY
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Forward testing (Profit)
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About EA's Strategy
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EA Features
Automated trading systemMonteCarloKing (Monte Carlo King)_USDJPYIts features are,
Sequence-basedMonte Carlo methodis used to automatically manage lot sizing while trading.
～What is Monte Carlo Method～
Monte Carlo method (sequence method) in casinos is a betting-management strategy that applies probability and mathematical thinking.
Unlike traditional Martingale methods that involve risk through doubling bets, this approach uses a “sequence” to adjust bet sizes and optimize profit-and-loss balance as a theoretical approach.
The biggest feature of this method is that bet sizes vary logically according to wins and losses, avoiding irrational increases in wager size.
In Martingale, losses cause bets to double and funds to be consumed rapidly, but in the sequence method the growth is restrained, enabling more stable capital management.
Also, when victories continue, the sequence is immediately cleared, whereas even during losing runs, losses can be recovered at the moment of a win, making investing psychologically calmer.
The sequence method does not succumb to emotions and proceeds based on mathematical discipline, making it a noteworthy capital-management algorithm in investing and a foundation for strategic trading.
In sum, Monte Carlo method (sequence method) is an intelligent and rational funds-management technique, and it is a highly valuable approach for strategies that aim to build profits while keeping risk in check.
This EA adopts a 3x payout rule, aiming for a profit to loss ratio of 2:1 per trade.
To briefly describe the Monte Carlo-based lot management flow, it proceeds as follows.
① In the first cycle, set three numbers (e.g., 1, 2, 3)
② Add the end numbers of the sequence (e.g., 1 + 3 = 4 points)
③ Use the points above × 0.01 lot (※) as the initial lot size for the trade (e.g., 4 × 0.01 lot = 0.04 lot)
④ If you lose, add the bet points to the right end of the sequence (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4)
⑤ Add the end numbers of the sequence (e.g., 1 + 4 = 5 points)
⑥ Again, use the above points × 0.01 lot (※) as the initial lot size for the trade (e.g., 5 × 0.01 lot = 0.05 lot)
⑦ If you win, remove two numbers from each end (e.g., 1,2 and 3,4)）
⑧ When there are no numbers left or only one remains, the cycle ends
※1 point per lot size (initial value: 0.01 lot) can be changed via parameters
Also, with the 3x payout rule, a win rate of at least 33.33% is required,
This EA hasWin rate: 37.91%(Backtest: about 19 years, trades: 6,302) thus employing a logic that enables continued profitability.
than make it possible to keep winning.
～Risk Considerations～
We have introduced the Monte Carlo method and its advantages, but of course it is not a universal solution in all situations.
As a drawback, when you lose, the bet amount is appended to the end of the sequence, so a losing streak lengthens the sequence and the next cycle’s lot size (investment amount) gradually increases.
Therefore,Operating without any stop loss is very dangerous.
To mitigate ruin risk, this EA sets an upper limit on points, and resets the sequence when the points (the sum of the end numbers) inflate.
If the sequence is reset, that cycle ends with a loss, but please understand this as a stop-loss within recoverable limits.
【EA Specifications】
Trading currency: USDJPY Trading style: Day trading Trading timeframe: 5 minutes (※)
※The logic internally references other timeframes.
【Backtest Results】※The measurement period is about 19 years.
①Initial funds: JPY 1,000,000,Trading mode = Monte Carlo + compounding, other parameters were validated with defaults.
※Backtest Report
【Parameter Descriptions】
| Order Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Magic Number | 47283916 | Set a number that does not overlap with other EAs. |
| Slippage | 20 | Maximum slippage limit. |
| Allowed Spread (Pips) | 10.0 | Maximum spread allowed at entry. |
| Retry Attempts on Order Failure | 3 | Number of retries on order failure. |
| Interval (ms) | 3000 | Interval until retry after a failed order. |
| Mode Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Trading Mode | Monte Carlo + Compounding | Lot management method when trading.You can select from the following modes. ①Monte Carlo + Compounding※Recommended Monte Carlo-based automatic lotsize management plus per-pointlotsize automatically increments according to available account margin (or account balance) ※When running alongside other EAs, please manage funds carefully. ② Monte Carlo Only automatic lot size management using the Monte Carlo method. If you want currency management to be clearer when running in parallel with other EAs, or if you want to manually manage the lot size per point, set this. ③ Simple Interest Trades with a fixed lot size without using Monte Carlo. ※This setting is not highly recommended as it assumes a Monte Carlo-based trading logic. |
| Monte Carlo compounding, Monte Carlo Mode Common Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Per-pointLotSize | 0.01 | Set the lot size per point. Points are the sum of the end numbers of the Monte Carlo sequence. Example) When set to 0.01 In one cycle with initial sequence [1, 2, 3], points = 4, so first trade is 4 × 0.01 = 0.04 lot. |
| Upper Limit Points | 100 | Set the maximum allowable points. If the logic yields a point exceeding this limit (the sum of the ends of the sequence), the cycle ends (practically a stop-out) and the next cycle starts from the initial sequence. |
| Initial Value | Description | |
| Balance Calculation | Excess Margin | Select the balance used to calculate lot size under compounding mode from the following: ①Excess Margin ② Account Balance ※If running with other EAs in parallel, be careful when selecting Account Balance as it makes money management more difficult. |
| Base Balance (amount excluded from lot size increases) | 1,000,000 | Set the amount to exclude from the calculation of per-point lot size increases. This determines up to what amount of money you operate with per-point lot size. |
| Lot Increments Per Unit Amount | 900,000 | Set the unit amount that increments the lot size. For example, with all settings at default: Excess margin up to 1,000,000 yen uses a per-point lot size of 0.01 lot,Excess margin exceeding 1,900,000 yen causes an increment in lot size per unit amount, and the per-point lot size switches to 0.02 lot.After that, if it exceeds 2,800,000 yen, the lot size increases to 0.03 lot, and so on. |
| Unit Amount per IncrementLotSize | 0.01 | Set the lot size per unit amount to be added. |
| Simple Interest Mode Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Fixed Lot Size | 0.01 | Trade with a fixed lot size in simple interest mode. |
| Buy Trade Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| SL (Pips) ※ TP (Pips) = SL*2 | 30.0 | Set the stop-loss in Pips for a single buy trade. TP Pips is twice the SL Pips. (Default recommended) TP (Pips) is the double of SL (Pips). Example |
| Sell Trade Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| SL (Pips) ※ TP (Pips) = SL*2 | 30.0 | Set the stop-loss in Pips for a single sell trade. TP Pips is twice the SL Pips. (Default recommended) TP (Pips) is the double of SL (Pips). Example |
Price: $112.76 (taxed)
￥18,000(taxed)
●Payment
Sales from : 11/09/2025 19:47
Price: $112.76 (taxed)
￥18,000(taxed)
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working