MonteCarloWing_EURJPY
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- 1 month
Forward testing (Profit)
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About EA's Strategy
Translating...
【Features of the EA】
Automated Trading System“MonteCarloWing (Monte Carlo Wing) _EURJPY”features,
is that it conducts trades while automatically managing lots using theMonte Carlo Methodbased on sequences.
～What is the Monte Carlo Method～
The Monte Carlo Method in casinos is a betting management strategy that applies probability and mathematical thinking.
Unlike traditional Martingale methods that involve doubling bets and carry risks, this approach utilizes “sequences” to adjust bet amounts and optimize profit and loss balance.
The main feature of this method is that the bet amount logically fluctuates according to wins and losses, avoiding unreasonable increases in stakes.
In the Martingale method, the bet amount doubles with each loss, rapidly depleting funds, whereas the sequence method suppresses this increase, allowing for more stable fund management.
Moreover, if wins continue, the sequence is quickly erased, while if losses continue, it is designed to recover losses at the timing of wins, enabling psychologically calm investments.
The sequence method progresses based on mathematical discipline without being swayed by emotions, making it a noteworthy fund management algorithm in the investment world and forming the foundation of strategic trading.
In conclusion, the Monte Carlo Method (sequence method) is a betting management technique that allows for intelligent and rational fund management, making it a highly valuable approach in strategies that accumulate profits while controlling risks.
This EA adopts a 3x payout rule, ensuring that the profit to loss ratio in a single trade is 2:1.
To briefly explain the flow of lot management using the Monte Carlo Method, it goes as follows.
▀The first cycle starts by setting three numbers from 1 to 3 (e.g., 1, 2, 3)
▁Add the numbers at both ends of the sequence (e.g., 1 + 3 = 4 points)
▂Use the points obtained above × 0.01 lot (⅛) as the initial lot size for trading (e.g., 4 × 0.01 lot = 0.04 lot)
▃If you lose, add the bet points to the right of the sequence (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4)
▄Add the numbers at both ends of the sequence (e.g., 1 + 4 = 5 points)
▅Again, use the points obtained above × 0.01 lot (⅛) as the initial lot size for trading (e.g., 5 × 0.01 lot = 0.05 lot)
▆If you win, erase two numbers from both ends (e.g:1, 23, 4
▇The cycle ends when there are no numbers left or only one remains
⅛The lot size per point (initial value: 0.01 lot) can be changed in the parameters
Additionally, the 3x payout rule requires a win rate of at least 33.33%, but
this EA hasa win rate of 34.99% (backtested over approximately 19 years with 5802 trades) and employs a logic that allows for continued winning.
This design enables a higher likelihood of continued success.
～Consideration for Risks～
We have introduced the methods and benefits of the Monte Carlo Method, but of course, it is not a universal method applicable in all situations.
A disadvantage of the Monte Carlo Method is that every time you lose, the bet amount is added to the end of the sequence, which can lengthen the sequence with consecutive losses, gradually increasing the next lot size (investment amount).
Therefore,operating without any stop-loss is extremely dangerous
To mitigate the risk of bankruptcy, this EA employs a mechanism to reset the sequence when the total points (the sum of the numbers at both ends of the sequence) balloon beyond a set upper limit.
If the sequence is reset, that cycle ends in a loss, but please understand it as a stop-loss within a recoverable range.
【EA Specifications】
Trading Currency: EURJPYTrading Style: Day TradingTrading Time Frame: 5 Minutes (⅛)
⅛The logic internally references other time frames.
【Backtest Results】⅛The measurement period is approximately 19 years.
▀Initial Capital: 1,000,000 yen,Trading Mode = Monte Carlo + Compound Interest, other parameters verified with initial settings.
⅛Backtest Report
【Parameter Explanations】
| Order Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Magic Number | 13795802 | Set a number that does not overlap with other EAs. |
| Slippage | 20 | Maximum slippage limit. |
| Allowed Spread (Pips) | 10.0 | Maximum spread allowed at entry. |
| Retry Count on Order Failure | 3 | Number of retries on order failure. |
| Interval in Seconds (ms) | 3000 | Interval until retry on order failure. |
| Mode Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Trading Mode | Monte Carlo + Compound Interest | Method of lot management when trading. Can be selected from the following modes. ▀Monte Carlo + Compound Interest⅛Recommended This mode automatically manages lot sizes using the Monte Carlo method, and automatically adds lot sizes per point according to the account's excess margin (or account balance). ⅛Please be careful with fund management when operating in parallel with other EAs. ▁Monte Carlo Only automatic management of lot sizes using the Monte Carlo method will be performed. If you want to manage fund management clearly when operating in parallel with other EAs, or if you want to manage the lot size per point yourself, please set this. ▂Simple Interest Trading will be conducted at a fixedlot size without using the Monte Carlo method. ⅛This setting is not highly recommended as it assumes trading logic that uses the Monte Carlo method. |
| Common Settings for Monte Carlo Compound Interest and Monte Carlo Modes | Initial Value | Description |
| Lot Size per PointLotSize | 0.01 | Set the lot size per point. Points are the sum of the numbers at both ends of the Monte Carlo method's sequence. Example) If set to 0.01 The initial sequence for one cycle is [1, 2, 3], so the points are 4, and the first trade will be at 4 × 0.01 = 0.04 lot. |
| Upper Limit Points | 100 | Set the upper limit points that can be tolerated when the points become large. If the points exceed the upper limit points in the logic (the sum of the numbers at both ends of the sequence), the cycle will end (effectively a stop-loss), and the next cycle will start with the initial sequence. |
| Monte Carlo Compound Interest Mode Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Balance Calculation | Excess Margin | Select the balance to be used for calculating lot size in compound interest mode from below. ▀Excess Margin ▁Account Balance ⅛Please be careful when selecting account balance if operating in parallel with other EAs, as fund management can become difficult. |
| Base Balance (Amount Excluded from Lot Size Calculation)) | 1,000,000 | Set the amount to be excluded from lot size calculation.This setting determines up to which amount to operate with “ lot size per point.” |
| LotSize to Add per Unit Amount | 700,000 | Set the unit amount for adding lot size. ⅛For example, with all default settings the lot size per point will be 0.01 lot until the excess margin reaches 1,000,000 yen, and when the excess margin exceeds 1,700,000 yen, the “lot size added per unit amount” will be added, and the lot size per point will switch to 0.02 lot. Subsequently, if it exceeds 2,400,000 yen, the lot will be added to 0.03 lot, and so on. |
| Lot Size to Add per Unit AmountLotSize | 0.01 | Set the lot size to be added per unit amount. |
| Simple Interest Mode Settings | Initial Value | Description |
| Fixed Lot Size | 0.01 | Fixed lot size when trading with simple interest. |
| Buy Trade Settings | ||
| SL (Pips) ⅛ TP (Pips) = SL * 2 Setting | 36.0 | Set the Pips for stop-loss in a single buy trade. ⅛ Default recommended TP (Pips) will be twice the SL (Pips). Example) If SL (Pips) = 36 Pips, then TP (Pips) = 72 Pips. |
| Sell Trade Settings | ||
| SL (Pips) ⅛ TP (Pips) = SL * 2 Setting | 36.0 | Set the Pips for stop-loss in a single sell trade. ⅛ Default recommended TP (Pips) will be twice the SL (Pips). Example) If SL (Pips) = 36 Pips, then TP (Pips) = 72 Pips. |
Price: $112.76 (taxed)
￥18,000(taxed)
●Payment
Sales from : 07/29/2025 22:20
Price: $112.76 (taxed)
￥18,000(taxed)
●Payment
Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working