HISUI

1. Overview

• With the recommended settings, the results of a 15-year backtest show a win rate of over 80% and a net profit of approximately 68 times the initial margin.
• The recommended currency pair is AUD/NZD.
• The recommended time frame is M5 (5-minute candlestick).
• No averaging down, no martingale, no hedging.
• A maximum of 2 positions.
• Several basic parameters for beginners and a wealth of trading decision parameters for intermediate to advanced users are provided.

Below are the results of a 15-year backtest with the recommended settings.

2. Features and SpecificationsI will disclose details about the features and specifications to the extent possible, including not only the advantages but also the disadvantages, so I hope you will read carefully and consider your purchase. First of all, I must mention a disadvantage that is common to all EAs: it does not guarantee certain profits. Additionally, while I mentioned above that "the results of a 15-year backtest show a win rate of over 80%," it is generally true that EAs with high win rates tend to have low risk-reward ratios (average profit of winning trades ÷ average loss of losing trades), and this EA (HISUI) also has a relatively low risk-reward ratio, which means there is a possibility of experiencing a so-called "grind and crash." Although the results of the 15-year backtest show a long-term upward trend, if you look closely, there are times when accumulated profits drop sharply, as shown in the red box below.

However, by changing the parameter settings mentioned later, it is possible to switch from a high win rate and low risk-reward EA to a low win rate and high risk-reward EA (if you wish to do so, you will need to find the optimal parameter settings yourself).

2.1. Trade Position Calculation

When I traded manually, I often missed entry timing thinking, "If I wait a few more pips, it will be more favorable," or hesitated about the exit position even after entering and making a profit. Also, after winning once, I would get carried away and enter at an unfavorable position, or stubbornly repeat unnecessary losing trades after a loss. By entrusting both entry and exit to the EA's logic, it is possible to avoid such situations.

Below is an example of trade positions calculated by this EA (HISUI) (excerpted from backtest results).

⛀ Understanding Favorable Market Conditions

By continuously calculating market changes, this EA (HISUI) determines whether it is in a range market, which it excels at.

⛀ Calculating Optimal Entry Points

It trades only in favorable range markets, but even then, it calculates two optimal entry points for the current market conditions. Depending on the parameter settings, in the recommended settings, the first position is entered slightly earlier to avoid missing a good opportunity, and the second position is entered at a point deemed more favorable based on calculations (depending on parameter settings and market volatility, the two entry points may be quite close, and the first position may be closed before the second position is entered). Moreover, it does not hedge and always holds positions in the same direction.

⛀ Calculating Optimal Exit Points

The pips to TP (Take Profit) and SL (Stop Loss) are not fixed but are calculated each time based on the market conditions at the time of entry (price movements, volatility, etc.), and set simultaneously with the entry. This strategy aims to set TP and SL further away when market movements are volatile and closer when movements are small. Additionally, the TP and SL prices set at the time of entry are intentionally set slightly further away for the following reasons:✥1.

• Reason for setting TP price slightly further away: It aims to secure sufficient profit in case of a sudden price gap upwards due to economic indicators. If TP is set too close, profits may be limited even in such cases.
• Reason for setting SL price slightly further away: It aims to prevent being stopped out due to temporary spread widening in the morning. If SL is set too close, there are many cases where the spread temporarily widens, resulting in a stop loss, and then returns to the original price, leading to a winning scenario.

⛀ Recalculating Exit Points Based on Market Fluctuations and Holding Period

After entry, the market's price movements and the position's holding period are used to recalculate the optimal exit points. Note that "more optimal exit points" are not limited to points where a profit can be realized. If the market moves in the opposite direction of expectations and the likelihood of turning a profit is low, the aim is to exit when the market moves in a direction that minimizes losses. Specifically, the image is as follows.

If I were trading manually, I might not be able to endure the unrealized loss at the bottom (the position of the blue circle above) and would end up closing the position.

2.2. Rapid Trading

As a company employee, I cannot trade during the day on weekdays (while at work). Therefore, I usually trade by looking at 4-hour or daily charts, making it difficult to accumulate profits through rapid short-term trades that require quick decisions. With an EA, it can continuously monitor moving ticks and trade repeatedly at any time, whether morning or night.

Below is an example of when this EA (HISUI) was particularly active in trading over a short period (excerpted from backtest results).

⛀ Entry and Exit with Each Tick

While the trade position calculation uses moving averages of 5-minute candles, entries and exits are executed with each tick. Even if the calculated trade position is reached, if the spread at that time or the recent price movements suggest a high likelihood of an unfavorable outcome, the entry will be skipped. In this way, it realizes strategies that are difficult to achieve through manual or limit orders.

⛀ Approximately 800 Trades Per Year (⅛ Based on Backtest Results with Recommended Currency Pair and Settings)

While it may not be considered ultra-high frequency, it is rare to have days without any trading when the market is open, as trading occurs almost daily (⅛ Trading frequency may change depending on market conditions or if unfavorable market conditions persist). For example, if an EA only trades about once a month, and that trade results in a loss, the next opportunity to profit may not come until a month later. However, this EA (HISUI) can provide opportunities to profit (next trade) on the same day or the following day even after a loss occurs. You will likely have fewer concerns about whether "the EA is functioning normally" without trading for long periods.

⛀ No Need to Stop or Manually Close Before Economic Indicator Releases or Weekends

New entries will not be made while spreads exceed the allowable spread set in the parameters. Additionally, even if the spread widens while there are open positions, the above mechanism (✥1) helps mitigate the risk of being stopped out solely due to spread widening (⅛ This is a measure against cases where the spread temporarily widens and then returns to the original price over time; if the market moves significantly in the opposite direction due to economic indicators, a stop loss will occur). Therefore, in principle, there is no need to stop this EA (HISUI) or worry about whether to manually close positions.

2.3. Lot Calculation for Compound Interest

I also perform manual trades with compound interest, but when placing orders, it takes time to calculate the appropriate lot size based on the current capital, the loss amount in case of a stop loss, and my risk tolerance. With an EA, such calculations can be performed instantly each time, allowing for trading with the appropriate lot size and benefiting from compound interest.

Below is part of the backtest results, showing that the lot sizes vary each time.

⛀ Calculating Appropriate Lot Size Based on Set Risk

The appropriate lot size is calculated just before entry based on the risk percentage and margin maintenance ratio that can be set in the parameters. Specifically, it calculates the expected loss amount in case of a stop loss based on the recent market conditions (price movements, volatility, etc.), ensuring that the expected loss amount is within the capital × risk percentage and that the margin maintenance ratio is above the set value. ⅛ Due to sudden market fluctuations (large price gaps, spread widening, slippage, etc.), the loss amount may exceed the expected amount based on the set risk percentage, so it is recommended to set the risk percentage and margin maintenance ratio with some leeway.

Additionally, this EA (HISUI) adopts a strategy that flexibly adjusts the pips to SL (Stop Loss) and TP (Take Profit) based on recent market conditions, making the effect of this automatic lot size calculation very high. For clarity, I will provide an extreme and simple example: consider a trade with "10 pips to SL and 5 pips to TP" winning 5 times, and a trade with "100 pips to SL and 50 pips to TP" losing once. If the lot size is fixed at 1 lot in this case, the total would be "5 pips × 1 lot × 5 times" - "100 pips × 1 lot × 1 time," resulting in a total loss. On the other hand, with the automatic lot size calculation used by this EA (HISUI), for example, it would adjust to "1 lot for a trade with 10 pips to SL and 5 pips to TP" and "0.1 lot for a trade with 100 pips to SL and 50 pips to TP" (⅛ This is simplified for clarity; in reality, the lot size is calculated considering the capital amount and the set risk percentage). In this case, the total would be "5 pips × 1 lot × 5 times" - "100 pips × 0.1 lot × 1 time," resulting in a total profit.

⛀ Effect of Compound Interest

This EA (HISUI) has no averaging down, no martingale, and a maximum of 2 positions, so the likelihood of suddenly taking on a risk significantly exceeding the "risk percentage against surplus capital" set in the parameters is very low. Therefore, as capital increases, it automatically increases the lot size accordingly, making it easier to harness the power of compound interest, so I recommend using it with compound interest settings. Additionally, if capital decreases due to unfavorable market conditions, it automatically reduces the lot size, which may lower the risk of failure compared to situations where a fixed lot size is set larger. ⅛ It is acceptable to consider that it possesses both the advantages and disadvantages commonly associated with compound interest.

The backtest shown initially was conducted with an initial margin of 1 million yen, but if you reduce the initial margin to 100,000 yen while keeping all settings the same (recommended settings), the profit obtained will only be 1/10, while the win rate and graph shape will be almost the same as those with the initial 1 million yen (it will not be exactly the same due to the influence of rounding in the number of lots that can be built).

It has been confirmed that even with a fixed lot size (single interest), the backtest results, as shown in the image below, show an upward trend, but the long-term profits obtained are less compared to compound interest. Therefore, as the creator, I recommend using it with compound interest settings.

Below are the results of a 15-year backtest conducted with a fixed lot size of 1.0 after changing from the recommended settings to single interest.

2.4. Optimization with Abundant Parameters

I struggled with how much of the parameters to disclose and allow for changes. If there are too few public parameters, it may lead to an inflexible EA. On the other hand, if there are too many public parameters, it may cause unnecessary confusion for purchasers. Additionally, there is a risk that the EA's logic could be inferred and stolen. Considering these balances, I decided to make a sufficient number of parameters available for public disclosure and modification, while ensuring that inferring the core logic remains difficult.

⛀ Adapting to Future Environmental Changes

As mentioned above, after considerable deliberation, I have made it possible for purchasers to change over 20 parameters. Of course, I will provide the recommended parameter settings (default settings) for the most recommended currency pair (AUD/NZD) after conducting repeated backtests. With the recommended settings, significant profits have been achieved in a 15-year backtest, and it has been confirmed to be profitable in recent forward tests, but there is no guarantee that the market will continue to provide sufficient profits as it has in the past. In the future, if there are changes in the market environment, it may be possible for purchasers to adjust various parameters to adapt to those changes.

⛀ Optimization for Currency Pairs Other Than the Recommended Currency Pair

While the recommended currency pair is AUD/NZD, it may be possible to optimize for other currency pairs by adjusting various parameters. For those who purchase, as a bonus for reference, I will provide parameter settings that I have simply adjusted for AUD/CAD (5-minute chart) and the backtest results conducted with those parameter settings in the parameter setting manual.

⅛ This is merely a bonus as an example of parameter adjustment and is based on 3 years of backtesting. It does not recommend operating with the parameters of the adjustment example.

⛀ Overview of All Configurable Parameters

Here, I will provide an overview of all configurable parameters as one of the materials for your decision on whether to purchase. However, many of these may not be meaningful with just an overview. Therefore, I have prepared a detailed parameter setting manual for purchasers.

⅛ Please make parameter changes at your own risk and after sufficient consideration. Please understand that I cannot provide specific numerical advice on parameters even if you inquire.

//-- Basic Parameters --//

• MagicNumber: Magic Number
• CompoundInterest: Compound Interest Setting
• RiskPercent: Risk Percentage Against Surplus Capital
• MarginLevelPercent: Margin Maintenance Ratio After Entry (Percentage)
• ManualLot: Fixed Lot Size
• AllowSpread: Allowable Spread
• AllowSlippage: Allowable Slippage

//-- Trading Decision Parameters --//

• MALongPeriod: Moving Average (Long-Term) Calculation Period
• MAMidPeriod: Moving Average (Medium-Term) Calculation Period
• MAShortPeriod: Moving Average (Short-Term) Calculation Period
• MAOrderCheckPeriod: Period to Check Moving Average Movements
• BaseValuePeriod: Period to Calculate Average Price Range and Moving Average Position Relationship Reference Value
• MAPositionalRelationPeriod: Period to Calculate Recent Moving Average Position Relationships
• MAPriceRelationPeriod: Period to Calculate the Relationship Between Moving Averages and Price Movements
• MAPriceRelationCount: Indicator for Judging the Relationship Between Moving Averages and Price Movements
• AvePriceRangePeriod: Period to Calculate Recent Average Price Range
• PriceRangeRelationRatio: Adjustment Value for Judging the Relationship Between Average Price Range Reference Value and Recent Average
• SLAdjustmentRatio: Stop Loss Width Adjustment Value
• TPAdjustmentRatio: Take Profit Width Adjustment Value
• FirstEntryAdjustmentRatio: Adjustment Value for the First Entry Price
• SecondEntryAdjustmentRatio: Adjustment Value for the Second Entry Price
• MaxHoldMinute: Maximum Holding Time
• StartAdPriceCloseMinute: Time to Start Considering Closing at a Slightly Favorable Price
• StartSamePriceCloseMinute: Time to Start Considering Withdrawal at the Same Price
• AdPriceAdjustmentRatio: Price Adjustment Value When Closing at a Slightly Favorable Price

//-- Special Setting Parameters --//

• BackTestWithFloatingSpread: Backtest with Floating Spread
• BackTestWithFixedSpread: Backtest with Fixed Spread
• DebugLog: Debug Log

3. Notes

3.1. Selection of Brokers

This EA (HISUI) is significantly affected by spreads and execution quality due to its high trading frequency and market order characteristics. Therefore, it is recommended to operate with brokers that have narrow spreads and high execution quality. Moreover, since the holding time for positions is relatively short (less than 24 hours excluding market closure times in recommended settings), the impact of swap points is not significant compared to spreads and execution quality (⅛ Depending on entry timing, swap points may occur, so it is not entirely without impact).

3.2. Global Variables (Terminal)

This EA (HISUI) uses global variables to temporarily store values on the MT4 terminal. Since it saves values related to trading, please do not manually change or delete the values of global variables from MT4. In the case of manual deletion, a function is implemented to automatically recalculate and almost return to the original state, but if there are manual changes, it cannot automatically revert to the original state. Therefore, if you accidentally change the value of a global variable manually, please delete that global variable manually. The global variable names are as follows, and they are designed to include the magic number and currency pair name to avoid interference. However, if you do something special like operating multiple instances of this EA (HISUI) on the same currency pair, the global variable names will be the same and interfere with each other, so please change the magic number to avoid this.

• HISUI_GVN_S_[Magic Number]_[Currency Pair Name]
• HISUI_GVN_T_[Magic Number]_[Currency Pair Name]
• HISUI_GVN_AS_[Magic Number]_[Currency Pair Name]
• HISUI_GVN_SS_[Magic Number]_[Currency Pair Name]

⅛ The parts [Magic Number] and [Currency Pair Name] will be replaced with the numerical value of the magic number and the currency pair name in the EA's processing.

4. FAQ

Q. Is there a limit on the lot size? A. There is no upper limit based on the specifications and functions of this EA (HISUI). It can be increased up to the maximum lot size of your broker. Q. Is there a recommended amount of margin? A. There is none. Please make a comprehensive judgment based on the leverage of your broker, the margin maintenance ratio at which forced liquidation occurs, the risk percentage during the operation of this EA (HISUI), and your risk tolerance and operational policy. Q. Is it okay to restart MT4 while holding positions? A. It is recommended not to restart while holding positions if possible. This EA (HISUI) adopts a strategy of closing positions before reaching the SL (Stop Loss) and TP (Take Profit) prices set at the time of entry, as explained above (✥1). Q. I feel that the lot size is large or the SL (Stop Loss) price is far compared to the risk percentage set in the parameters; is this a malfunction? A. No, this is intentional behavior. As explained above (✥1), since it adopts a strategy of closing positions before reaching the SL (Stop Loss) and TP (Take Profit) prices set at the time of entry, in most cases, losses will not exceed the set risk percentage. However, in cases of extreme price gaps, losses may exceed the set risk percentage, so please be careful not to set the risk percentage too high. Q. While the use of compound interest settings is recommended, is it not acceptable to operate with single interest settings? A. I believe it is fine to adjust according to your own thinking and operational methods, so if single interest settings suit you, it is perfectly acceptable to operate with them. Q. Are the recommended settings curve-fitted (over-optimized)? A. It is difficult to assert that they are absolutely not. Generally, it is necessary for any EA to optimize to some extent for the target currency pair and market environment, and it is very challenging to judge whether that optimization is appropriate or excessive. However, when determining the recommended settings for this EA (HISUI), I did not rely solely on backtesting for optimization; I also conducted walk-forward tests and actual forward tests on live accounts. Additionally, it is generally said that the longer the backtest period and the more trades, the lower the likelihood of curve fitting, and this EA (HISUI) has achieved sufficient win rates and profits with a backtest period of 15 years and over 10,000 trades. In this way, I strive to minimize the possibility of curve fitting as much as possible.