大局観で毎日狙う利益に天井なし！【fxリベンジ】

fxRevenge is an EA that I developed through research because I wanted to win in FX.

I learned a lot from the failures of the EAs I have created so far and challenged the two major issues for me: "Why do I incur large losses?" and "Why does it seem good in backtesting but performs poorly in forward testing?"

Reasons for Large Losses

The reason for large losses turned out to be very simple once I realized it.

It was because I had set the SL (stop loss) to a level that would lead to large losses...

Usually, we subconsciously think that we don't want to lose or incur losses.

To avoid that, we tend to "prolong the loss-cutting," meaning we set the SL value large enough so that it doesn't trigger within the backtesting range. This makes the data look clean and calms the mind.

However, this leads to inadequate handling of losses when they occur.

When there are price movements beyond past data in forward testing, I incur large losses.

Why Can't I Win in Forward Testing?

As I mentioned earlier, I was too focused on cleaning up the backtesting data and failed to anticipate the price movements in forward testing.

To clean up the data, I wanted to reduce losses by increasing the SL value.

I was fixated on small winning trades that I wasn't sure I could replicate, wanting to increase the win rate.

Because I was restless, I would quickly take profits on small gains, leading to a fixation on scalping.

Analyzing losing trades led to an increase in restrictive filters, transforming into a logic that cannot be judged by human reasoning.

I realized that I had been influenced by a distorted mindset from the development stage.

After numerous modifications, I had forgotten what I originally wanted to create.

I was swayed by the desire to win and not to lose, and through activities like "researching logic and verifying trading methods," I had not established "my own trading method."

As of January 3, 2023, my forward testing shows a significantly higher number of trades and better recent results compared to previous EAs. I feel a clear difference compared to past works.

Returning to my roots, I developed fxRevenge.

【 Aiming for Big Gains and Small Losses 】

Eliminating TP (take profit) values for larger profits.

Since there is no TP value set, profits can be pursued infinitely as long as they continue to grow.

By not trading multiple times a day, I can keep commission costs down!

And by setting the SL based on short-term trends,

I designed it to achieve large gains and small losses in the form of 《 Infinite TP > Limited SL 》.

【 Valuing the Big Picture and Not Forgetting the Basics 】

Everyone has probably heard the explanation to refer to long-term trends when trading short-term trends at least once, right?

That's the recent trend of multi-timeframe analysis, isn't it?

But in the end, don't we often forget about the long-term trend and trade short-term?

In a downtrend, I think the long-term has bottomed out, so I go long short-term!

Then again,

I think this is a long-term pullback, so I go short short-term!

Additionally,

even though I entered based on the long-term trend on the hourly chart, when it gets tough,

I suddenly change my judgment to long-term trend = there’s resistance on the daily chart, so it’s still okay!

The criteria for judgment can change...

Thus, fxRevenge clarifies the big picture.

Entry Strategy

Determine the entry direction based on the hourly trend (long-term)

And gauge the entry timing on the 5-minute chart (short-term).

Exit Strategy

When the long-term trend changes

When the SL set on the short-term trend is hit

These are the basic strategies.

Isn't it extremely ordinary and obvious?

I designed it with a focus on the basics, without any difficult concepts.

Disadvantages

It has become an EA that "loses steadily but wins big."

The win rate is poor, especially in ranging markets, where it continues to incur small losses.

In the past, I would have modified it repeatedly to try to fix this.

However, this time I have determined that "this method is good as it is."

There are strategies for ranging markets, so it’s fine to create a separate EA for that.

It may feel loose, but I believe this will lead to better results.

Sample Image

Blue = Long, Red = Short

The trades made on M5 are displayed on H1.

The dividing line represents one day.

About Parameters

・Please input GMT for both winter and summer.

・It does not support compound interest operations.

・There is a spread filter, but the default is off.

・There is a pre-settlement function that corresponds to rollover times.

Do not settle when you can receive swaps considering interest rate differentials,

settle to avoid paying swaps,

or settle because spreads are volatile,

please use it at your own discretion.

・It has a weekend close function.

・There is a function to restrict trading until Monday at 9 AM when spreads stabilize at the beginning of the week.

Caution

This EA does not recommend high risk, high return.

Please use it at your own risk after fully understanding the risks involved.

Based on backtesting from 2003 to 2023, with a 0.1 Lot operation, it has resulted in approximately -150,000 yen, so I believe you need at least 200,000 yen in capital when operating at 0.1 Lot.

If you have 100,000 yen in capital, wouldn't a maximum of about 0.05 Lot be better?