Trend reversals are decided without hesitation when judged by the Ichimoku Cloud, moving averages, and MACD

Everyone says in unison that the secret to winning in investing is following the trend. So you might think, "Oh, is that so?" and blindly follow the trend, but you won’t win, will you?

Of course not. After all, you can’t even recognize the trend, so there is no clear case for either following or contrarian trading. And yet you nitpick and complain, sneer at the wise person who taught you a proper method, and wonder what kind of mindset a losing investor has?

I’m speechless. It’s because of this that the market tilts and you lose. Instead of envying successful investors or despising losers, staying on the bulletin boards with a smug face and endlessly taunting fellow suckers—this isn’t the way to mend the wounds or heal each other.

You all want to win in the market too, right. Then I’ll clearly and in detail explain the criteria for detecting trend reversals, so read the following text. If you have time to rejoice in someone else’s misfortune, sense the current trend. Don’t think about it. Feel it. And not as a gag in a manga, but to judge the current trend, and to derive and apply your own criteria for determining whether a trend has reversed.

Here’s a question. Can you answer clearly what a trend is?

The answer is simple. If manipulators buy, it’s an uptrend. If they sell, it’s a downtrend. If you want to adjust positions, it’s a range market. That’s all.

Huh! Is that all? I understand your frustration. No matter how unbelievable it is, the fact remains that manipulators control the trend.

This is reality. Accept it. Start from there.

Yes, yes, manipulators decide the trend. So what?

Whoa, don’t lose your temper. Let’s calm down first. In other words: price movements in the financial markets don’t oscillate solely due to natural demand and supply. Without geopolitical risks or financial instability, they would always drift up or down. But financial market moves are violently volatile, aren’t they? That means manipulators are running wild in the financial markets.

So why do manipulators run wild?

Because they kill the weak. That’s why the world of margin trading has the cursed word "stop hunting." I understand you don’t want to believe it. But you’ve likely experienced after your position was hunted and then reversed.

The first fact you must accept is that manipulators are the trend.

That’s as far as we’ll go for now. And let me add that I’m not saying I’m Gundam or anything for a joke.

If you admit that manipulators are the trend, you must know their strategies and tactics; otherwise you cannot determine the peak or bottom, and you cannot accurately decide whether your current position is a trend-following or a contrarian. When I trade, don’t you feel stops get hunted whether you follow the trend or contrarian?

That’s because you’re a duck. It’s like a hunter’s rifle locking onto the back of a duck, toting onions while trading currencies. Have you never felt such a sensation before? After your position is hunted, your heart is filled with a sense of being targeted.

That was schemed, huh—Shah (o^-')b. Heh. It’s because you’re still a boy.

Probably readers have noticed this too. But normally you can’t prove it, so it remains guesswork. Yet I learned the hidden side of the financial market from my master. The financial market is, in truth, a brutal, ruthless arena.

Market participants aren’t trading in a fair environment; it’s a city-wide rumor—politics has no surprises... it’s all rigged, or so they say.

I am the lowest-tier investor. An apprentice caregiver with no bright future. Yet I must survive. That’s why I trade FX. By steadily building a track record in FX, if I could write an autobiography as a book and return to my hometown to get married... hmm?

Do the usual flags respond? Yes. But I won’t lose. I’ll twist the usual flags o(-')b

I’ve technically explained why manipulators are the trend. Price movement is either range-bound or trend-driven, that’s the two options, right?

Whatever you think, this is the answer. For example, suppose a downtrend ends and it becomes a sideways drift. If the range upper limit is breached, an uptrend begins. If the range lower limit breaks, a downtrend begins. In other words, there are no ceilings or floors in the currency market—only range markets and level corrections repeat themselves.

What must not be misunderstood is that even within a range market there are trend phases, and within a trend market there are range phases. Many people don’t know this, or perhaps they simply aren’t serious about it. But it is common sense for profitable investors.

The basic movement is the repetition of a range market and a level-correcting market!

Lateral drift, lateral drift, lateral drift. This is the truth of the market. It feels like Edward Elric, the Fullmetal Alchemist, has opened the door to the truth, and you the reader are left bewildered as you realize this ∩(´∀｀)∩

Readers who have achieved enlightenment will understand. Both range markets and trend markets are formed by the manipulators’ price moves, so by discerning the manipulators’ motives through fundamental factors or technical analysis, even investors who have been swindled can ride the winning horse...

So can you truly read the manipulators’ moves and motives by looking at charts?

The answer is YES. Even a bottom-tier apprentice caregiver can’t help but end up behind in fundamental analysis. That’s the exhaustion of information. What we latecomers know, manipulators know in advance. That’s why they act on what’s to come.

So what should we do? The answer is set.

Treat fundamental factors as rough references and use technical analysis to locally judge manipulators’ moves and motives. In short, you can interpret charts to understand manipulators’ motives.

In my case, I judge manipulators’ investment strategies by the price action against the Ichimoku cloud. I monitor the depth and height of the MACD to gauge market overheating, and I take positions when a golden cross or dead cross occurs to curb my position-trading habit.

Before entering, I re-check all timeframes’ candles and moving averages to clearly determine the short-, mid-, and long-term trends or ranges. If the chart is too subtle to clearly judge, I skip it. Missing this would deprive me of opportunities forever, but with my investment rules, I have a chance to earn at least once every half-day, so there’s no need to rush.

When you enter, set a stop-loss so that it activates if the nearest support breaks. Even if you skip the intermediate steps and just tell you the answer, you might not understand. But I earn by repeating just that much.

Even in good times my win rate is about 70%, but in bad times it’s about 5% or loss. Still, when you think in terms of monthly totals, it’s possible to earn steadily. This method emphasizes MACD as the main tool despite frequent false signals, and improves accuracy by clearly judging the false signals.

How do you improve the accuracy of detecting false signals? The answer is simple. Read manipulators’ moves and motives from the chart. In other words, since manipulators create the trend, if you understand their motives, you’ll know which direction to follow for the trend. Then you can easily determine whether something is a false signal.

The essence of margin trading is to hunt the other side’s positions. Manipulators move prices to hunt the poor positions of individual investors, and as a result, a trend forms.

From various technical indicators and candles, you can easily determine the band where trapped investors’ poor positions accumulate, and you can also judge the trend. Once you can identify support and resistance, you can determine the trendline. When the trendline is breached or broken, it’s evidence that the band of poor positions (support/resistance) has changed, so frankly acknowledge the fact and respond accordingly ∧(｀°∀°)∧

When horizontal lines or trendlines are breached, decide whether to exit or stay. If you have no positions, decide whether to jump in or wait and see. After a range breakout, even veterans hesitate. Beginners might rush in or fearfully pass. If you don’t know what to do, stay calm, observe, and watch price action in real time as you proceed.

To win in investing, talent isn’t what you need; experience is. Let’s establish clear criteria to judge rising trends, falling trends, and range markets with MACD. MACD is a technical tool based on moving averages. The criteria share many similarities: a golden cross indicates an uptrend; a dead cross indicates a downtrend. If the slope of the line turns up, it’s an uptrend; if it turns down, it’s a downtrend. Overheating in the market is judged by the divergence rate.

Thus, MACD and moving averages are interpreted in the same way. One thing to beware: MACD buy/sell signals tend to front-run the trend. I believe MACD most quickly suggests trend reversals, which is why it has many false signals.

With indicators other than MACD, even when there are no signs of reversal, MACD will clearly show a reversal sign. The faster you go, the more false signals occur, which is the gist of mastering MACD.

But how do you master the technique of detecting false signals?

I have an answer to that question. There is a simple, beginner-friendly method to detect false signals. Rather than a false-signal method, think of it as a trend-detection method (o^-')b

Before that, let me explain the basics of MACD. Determine market overheating with divergence from the ±0 line. Buy at a golden cross, sell at a dead cross; this is the basic MACD trading signal. The most important thing in MACD is to recognize that the larger the divergence from the ±0 line, the stronger the trend.

If above the ±0 line, it’s interpreted as an uptrend; if below, as a downtrend. Even if buy/sell signals light up, because MACD tends to front-run, you must inevitably watch out for false signals. In other words, even during a strong downtrend, when MACD buy signals light up, whether it truly reverses is up to luck.

Nevertheless, I trust MACD’s buy/sell signals and enter positions, after interpreting manipulators’ motives, of course.

If you buy well below the ±0 line, while the MACD line is rising to the right, but candles move in a range, it’s evidence that the downtrend ended and a range market began.

If, at this time, the candles rise with the same slope as MACD, I judge it as an uptrend. This is the behavior when reversing from a downtrend.

If you sell well above the ±0 line, the MACD line trends downward to the right while candles move in a range, it’s evidence that the uptrend ended and a range market began.

If at this time the candles fall with the same slope as MACD, I judge it as a downtrend. This is the behavior when reversing from an uptrend.

A divergence occurs when the MACD line declines while candles rise. This is interpreted as a range market where highs are rising and lows are rising. Since it’s a range market, the trend will form in the direction of the breakout.

When a divergence occurs, it often marks a top or bottom with high probability, but there is about a 30% chance of continuation. In such times, carefully judge using fundamental factors and technical analysis, and then compare MACD across all timeframes—short, medium, and long—in real time.

By following in real time, you’ll realize that the trend is being visualized.

You can easily determine whether it’s a trend market or a range market.

Where you analyze—whether on a minute, hourly, or daily chart—can change the results. A short-term uptrend doesn’t necessarily mean the mid-term or long-term will trend up.

Because short-term frames accumulate to form mid-term frames, which in turn form long-term frames. Over the long term there can be consolidations even in an uptrend. So mid-term may be a range market too. Range markets and trend markets are two sides of the same coin.

In short, the trend of the short timeframe aggregates into the mid-term range market. Local behavior is in the short timeframe, while the overall view is in the long timeframe. If you keep in mind that long-term candles are the aggregate of the short-term, you’ll improve your technical analysis. Now you should understand that manipulators are the trend.