No-Confidence Motion for Prime Minister Mei! Can the no-confidence motion pass!? ~Highlights and event schedule for January 16~
This morning's vote on the withdrawal plan ended in a defeat due to stronger-than-expected opposition. The gap between support and opposition drew attention to whether it would exceed 100 votes, but the result was a 230-vote margin with a vote against the prime minister in Britain’s history. However, the pound had already fallen sharply even before the vote began, indicating expectations of a large defeat. Therefore, the moment the voting result was announced, there was a rebound.
◎ Today's Highlights
1) Will the no-confidence motion pass?
Yesterday, it was defeated by a 230-vote margin. When the results were announced, the Labour Party leader submitted a no-confidence motion against the cabinet. It is said that talks regarding the no-confidence motion will take place today. Prime Minister May does not appear to intend to resign as a result of shouldering the responsibility for the 230-vote margin. From here, all eyes are on which direction the UK will take.
We summarize several possible storylines and strategies↓↓↓
Story and strategy for the withdrawal vote in the British Parliament!
2) Turkey’s policy rate
Turkey’s policy rate is complex with four varieties. Also, there are differences of opinion between President Erdogan and the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB). The TCMB wants to tighten to curb lira depreciation, while President Erdogan wants to cut rates to boost the economy. Ideally, central banks are independent bodies, and they should not bow to presidential pressure, but in the past there have been times when pressure prevented rate hikes. That was the trigger for the Turkish shock.
Because of that, Turkey’s policy rate is a highly surprising indicator. It is worth paying close attention.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
Wednesday, January 16
16:00 EUR Germany HICP (Consumer Price Index)
18:15 GBPCarnegie Bank of England Governor Carney's Speech
18:30 GBP CPI (Consumer Price Index)
19:00 EUR Italy HICP (Consumer Price Index)
20:00 TRYTurkey Policy Rate Announcement
22:30 USD Retail Sales
Thursday, January 17
00:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
04:00 USD Beige Book (Federal Reserve Districts Economic Report)
04:00 GBPNo-Confidence Vote in Cabinet
08:30 USD Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President Speech
09:01 GBP RICS Housing Market
09:30 AUD Housing Loans
◎ Weekly Schedule
