[Thinking Ability] Do not be fooled by statistics
Hello, this is Nikkei OP Boy who runs this blog.
Thank you very much for visiting this blog.
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Now, the theme this time isDo not be deceived by statistics.
Statistics are very convenient for looking at past trends.
From a neutral standpoint, they can be used to some extent, but you need to be careful in the following cases.
★ When data is taken subjectively
For example, data and the collection period, etc.
★ When the sample size is too small
For example, only 10 or 20 cases exist
When analyzing the past stock market, you should want at least 36, preferably 60.
For example, the statistics of whether the last 10 trading days of the past 20 years rose or fell.
The result is14 wins 6 lossesHowever, to use this to say that there is a tendency for the market to rise at year-end and buy accordingly is too simplistic, in my opinion.
★ The sample size is too small
★ From the trend of that year, what is it like?
★ How about the trend of the other 10 trading days?
★ What about considering growth rate or decline rate?
★ What are the median and average?
★ What is the shape of the distribution?
★ What are the trends in bonds and exchange rates that year?
and so on
Rather than simply swallowing the results,
think critically and verify them
I am confident that this process is very important for investors.
Note) The above is my personal view, and also intended only to improve financial literacy. Therefore, it is not created for the purpose of investment solicitation. Also, while the blog content is based on data from reliable sources, the administrator does not guarantee its accuracy. The final investment decisions should be made at your own responsibility.
