IMF World Economic Outlook: Japan's Low Growth Stands Out
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Now, the theme this time isIMF Economic Outlook.
The IMF raised its world economic outlook on October 10.
2017 2018 2019 2020 World 3.6% (+0.1) 3.7% (+0.1) 3.7% 3.7%
United States 2.2 (+0.1) 2.3 (+0.2) 1.9 1.8
Japan 1.5 (+0.2) 0.7 (+0.1) 0.8 0.2
Euro area 2.1 (+0.2) 1.9 (+0.2) 1.7 1.6 Note) The figures in parentheses are changes from the July outlook.
Source) IMF
The market is forecasting that the global economy will remain robust.
On the other hand, the author is paying attention to Japan's relatively low economic growth rate after 2019.
Among growth forecasts that are less than 1%, the projection is that it will drop to 0.2% in 2020.
Linking this to Japan's stock market, the PER for countries with slow growth will not be high.
It is precisely because growth is high that PER is high.
Comparing PER across countries without considering each country's economic growth is not very meaningful.
Additionally, even without economic growth, if corporate sales increase,
or if productivity improvements raise profit margins,
PER might rise.
However, Japan's productivity is not that high, is it?
Note) The above represents my personal view and is intended solely to improve financial literacy. Therefore, this is not prepared for investment solicitation. Please make your own final investment decisions at your own risk.
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