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May 6, 2021 (Thursday) Rain followed by sunshine Newspaper holiday

・Impact of semiconductor shortages on automobile production is expanding.

The German Association of the Automotive Industry revised downward its forecast for domestic production in 2021 to 4 million units, up 13% from 2020.

・The Financial Times on the 5th reported that US investment firm Archegos Capital Management has begun preparations toward insolvency.

In anticipation of lawsuits from financial institutions involved in the trades, it is said that they hired advisers familiar with insolvency and restructuring.

Total losses have swollen to over 1 trillion yen at major financial institutions.

Financial institutions that incurred losses are hiring lawyers and showing signs of filing lawsuits against Archegos.

・ADP, a US private employment services company, announced on the 5th that in April total US non-farm payrolls (excluding government) increased by 742,000 from the previous month.

The employment gain accelerated from the revised figure of 565,000 in the previous month, signaling a rapid recovery in the labor market.

The increase was the largest since September 2020, for seven months.

Dow Jones' market forecast (about 800,000) fell short.

Regarding the April employment statistics to be released by the Labor Department on the 7th, the market expects non-farm payrolls to rise by about 1 million.

・The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced on the 5th that the provisional number of births in 2020 in the US fell 4% year on year.

Six consecutive years of decline, the lowest level in about 40 years since 1979.

With births further reduced due to the impact of COVID-19, this could affect the US economy’s growth, which has been a global driver.

Birth rates declined across all age groups 15–44, and even the birth rate for ages 40–44, which had risen nearly steadily by an average of 3% from 1985 to 2019, fell by 2%.

・Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, in response to the spread of COVID-19, will decide on the extension or not of the state of emergency by the 7th.

The state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo Prefectures will reach its deadline on the 11th.

・The G7 foreign ministers' meeting on the 5th adopted a joint statement, noting COVID-19 as the current major threat

and expressing support for Taiwan and Ukraine, though there was no mention of concrete measures.

・The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Southeast Asia representative stated on the 5th that discussions with Chinese officials would be held “in the near future,”

and that they plan to scrutinize the implementation of the “Phase 1” US-China trade agreement.

・The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced on the 5th that April’s Non-Manufacturing PMI (NMI) came in at 62.7 (forecast 64.3), a slight decline from a record high of 63.7 in the previous month.

Thanks to large-scale economic stimulus and rapidly improving COVID-19 conditions, demand surged,

and supply shortages of raw materials and other inputs were seen as a constraining factor.

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