[U.S. stocks] Goldilocks market or plateau before a plunge - Riman's US stock investment - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

Hello, Lehman (@Lehman1980) is.

Recently, U.S. long-term interest rates have sharply fallen to the mid-1.5% range,

and the overall market has remained in a neutral to slightly bullish state as it watches earnings reports from major companies and monthly economic indicators.

The S&P 500 index has been choppy, but compared with two weeks ago it has slightly risen.

Last night too, it easily recovered from the drop the day before and finished trading near all-time highs.

There is a financial term called the Goldilocks market.

“A market that is neither overheated nor cooling, in a moderate state. Also called a temperate market. It derives from the Goldilocks who appears in the British fairy tale “Goldilocks and the Three Bears,”where Goldilocks drinks a soup that is not too hot and not too cold, just right.

“An economy that is not overheating nor stalling, with steady growth and long-term interest rates staying low and stable—an appropriately balanced market.”

(Quote:Nomura Securities)

The Biden administration's statements that caused the day-before-drop may, while curbing overheating, contribute to a gradual rise in stock prices.

It is a policy popular with some, but there will be opposition from the wealthy, the securities industry, and conservative Republicans; it is something to watch.

That said, if, during the deliberation, compromises on tax rates or target income levels are reached and enacted, I judge that it will not have a major impact on the market.

Biden to propose higher capital gains tax; funding for childcare would nearly double: Reuters

＜S&P 500 index close and intraday high 4185 (20210416)＞

March 23: 2237 (COVID-19 crash bottom)

May 15: 2863

December 31: 3756

March 27: 3974

April 23: 4180

https://jp.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data

Heatmap for the past month. (Source:FINVIZ)

There is broad upside, but NFLX and INTC have fallen as their earnings were not well received.

STT also fell sharply at one point.

As mentioned in the previous article, the energy sector has not been energetic.

Perhaps because REITs are doing well, SPYD rose to around $40, near pre-COVID levels.

U.S. stock holdings

SBI Securities account summary. (as of close on April 23)

Unrealized gains amount to $13,611, nearly $1,200 higher than in the previous article.

Cumulative net profit including realized losses and dividends is $11,950 in the plus.

Stock holdings around $87,000, cash equivalents such as MMFs around $36,000, maintaining a roughly 70:30 ratio.

The yen has strengthened suddenly, breaking below 1 USD = 108 JPY, making currency trading less favorable at this level.

I would prefer yen to strengthen to the mid-106s, at least.

Buy: VT (640→670), PFF (300→350), STT (20)

Sell: AAPL (20→5), BTI (60→0), T (130→100)

I adjusted individual stocks; BTI was sold just before a sharp drop by coincidence.

New position: STT, one of the big three asset management companies, has been purchased.

I picked up a bit during the decline caused by quarterly earnings disappointment.

I hope it is not at the plateau just before a drop.

Well then, until next time.

＜Continued watchlist＞

Large-cap: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA

Growth: FSLY

Semiconductors: QCOM, NVDA, INTC, AMD

Finance: PYPL, BLK, STT

Consumer staples: PG, KO, PM, BTI

Communication: T