Closed for Good Friday
April 3, 2021 (Sat) Clear
NY Stock Market Good Friday Holiday
Osaka Securities Exchange Futures (as of 4/3 5:30) 29,980 yen (intraday +50 yen)
Nikkei Average (Dollar-denominated) 270.10 +4.76 (4/2) (two days of gains)
(Year-to-date high 2021 288.79 (2/16) Year-to-date low 21 years 261.83 (3/24) 20 years 265.85 (12/29) 19 years 219.64 (12/17) 180.79 (1/4))
U.S. Long-Term Rates (U.S. 10-year Treasury) (Local time 4/2 17:40) 1.6717% -0.0723 -4.15% (U.S. 2-year Treasury) 0.16% (4/1)
FX: USD/JPY: 1 USD = 110.655 JPY EUR/JPY: 1 EUR = 130.141 JPY
(Chicago futures market yen-denominated positions: 3/23, second week short (net short) 53,525 (week-over-week +14,157; second consecutive week of net short increase))
European stock markets closed for Good Friday
Details of [Koro Asa Premium]
We will deliver [Koro Asa NEWS] by email (free).
4/3 (Sat) [Koro Asa Seminar] April Special Edition The God of Luck of the Market Arrives (Tokyo, Shinjuku)
4/10 (Sat) [Koro Asa Seminar] Special Lecture: Mr. Hideaki Sakurai New Year WEB Solo Event (4/9 recording, downloadable)
VIX (Fear Index): 17.33 -2.07 -10.67% (4/1)
VX V (3-month futures volatility): 20.97 -1.18 -5.33% (4/1) (VXV/VIX 0.83%)
Skew Index 136.29 -4.64 (4/1) (four days of declines) Above 130 for 91 consecutive days (since 11/18) (max 159.03 on 8/13/2018)
Fear & Greed Index: 58 (4/1)
0-25 Extreme Fear (risk-off) 76-100 Extreme Greed (risk-on)
26-50 Fear (neutral to risk-off) 51-75 Greed (neutral to risk-on)
(Below 10 is the bottom range; 85 or higher is extreme optimism, signaling a top)
SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor): 3240.17 +115.23 +3.69% (4/1)
Gold price: 1 troy ounce 1,730.5 +14.8
Nickel price: US$7.3624 per 1 lb -0.0109 (4/1)
Copper price: US$3.9793 per 1 lb -0.0116 (4/1)
WTI Crude Oil: 61.30 +2.14
Baltic Dry Index: 2,072.00 +26.00 (4/1) (rebound after 4 trading days)
(Recent high 2,319.00 on 3/22/21; recent low 393.00 on 5/15/20)
Nikkei Stock Average 29,854.00 yen +465.13 (two days of gains)
SQ Value: 29,282.41 (3/12) 26,713.47 (December Major SQ)
Six days after SQ value is decided, [〇〇〇〇〇〇] 6 wins 0 losses
〇 = Nikkei average above SQ value on that day ● = below
From SQ day to six days later, the more days that stay below, the more likely the following month will trend down.
NT Ratio: 15.14 +0.13 (4/2) (six days of gains)
(2021 high 15.66 on 2/25; low 14.66 on 3/22; 20-year high 15.21 on 12/30; low 12.90 on 3/19; 19-year high 13.87 on 10/18; low 13.16 on 3/18)
Nikkei 225 5-day moving average deviation: +1.8% (previous business day +0.3%) 5% deviation commonly considered a threshold
Nikkei 200-day moving average deviation: +17.2% (previous day +15.5%) (over 40% is dangerous; 45% is the limit)
Topline Oscillator (25 days): Nikkei Average 132.13 +11.37 (4/2) Recent high 137.10 (3/29/2021); low 40.12 (3/16/2020)
Mothers Index 102.06 +2.61 (4/2) Recent high 114.70 (2/5/2021); low 78.16 (3/5/2021)
(Generally, 120%+ is overheated; 70% or below is a bottom zone; 60% or below is a buying opportunity)
Psychology (12 days): 58.3% (+8.0) 7 wins 5 losses (4/2) (Generally, 9 wins or more is overheated; 3 wins or less is bottom)
Credit impairment ratio (as of 3/26): negative 7.41% -1.42 (three weeks deterioration)
(Generally, negative 15% or below is a bottom; negative 3% or more indicates a ceiling)
Arbitrage buy residual: 1.4383 trillion yen week-over-week +270.8 billion yen (2 weeks of increase) Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section market cap share 0.195% (0.5% is a warning line)
Sell residual: 1.1133 trillion yen week-over-week -21.8 billion yen (down for 2 weeks) (as of 3/26) market cap 73,761.93 billion yen (as of 3/30)
(If arbitrage buy residual enters the 500 billion yen range, Nikkei may bottom out)
Market activity share of large-cap stocks: 23.8%
Short selling ratio: 38.5% (previous business day 41.0%) (4/2) Under 40% for three consecutive business days (4/2 onward)
(Historical: 52.1% on 2020/3/6 51.7 on 20/3/12 51.5 on 19/8/5 51.2% on 19/7/18 50.8% on 18/10/23 50.3% on 19/3/8 20/1/28 50.2%)
No short sale ratio restrictions: 8.0% (4/2) (2021/3/12 16.2 19/3/8 14.6) (over 8% is seen as a market turning point)
Nikkei Average HV: 21.37
Nikkei VI: 19.41 -0.35
(When below 20, buying zone; when above 40, selling zone)
CDS index: Actual price 46.79 -1.00
REIT Index: 2004.63 +11.01 (three trading days rebound on 4/2)
Nikkei Average constituent stocks PER: 22.77x Earnings per share 1311.11 yen (4/1 1299.82 yen) (High: 1795.09 yen on 2019/7/25)
(21 years 1/4 1084.51 yen; 20 years 1/6 1639.92 yen; 19 years 1/4 1763.93 yen; 18 years 1/4 1519.48 yen; 17 years 1/4 1180.37 yen)
Nikkei Average constituent PBR 1.33x (3/)
Simple average (All TSE First Section stocks) 2641.33 yen +17.98 yen (End of 2020 2341.19 yen; End of 2019 2327.02 yen; End of 2018 2077.20 yen; End of 2017 2946.13 yen)
TSE investment主体別売買動向 (Weekly) past 5 weeks (Week 4 of March) ○ buying excess ● selling excess
Overseas ●○○○● (4 weeks since last net selling)
Individuals ○○●●○ (3 weeks since last net buying)
Trust banks ●●●●● (12 weeks of net selling) (4/1 announcement) (includes JASDAQ)
Mothers Investment主体別売買動向 (Weekly) past 5 weeks (Week 4 of March) ○ buying excess ● selling excess
Overseas ●●○●● (2 weeks net selling)
Individuals ○○●○○ (2 weeks net buying) (4/1 announcement)
JASDAQ Investment主体別売買動向 (Weekly) past 5 weeks (Week 4 of March) ○ buying excess ● selling excess
Overseas ●●○○● (3 weeks net selling)
Individuals ○○●●○ (3 weeks net buying) (4/1 announcement)
TSE Investment主体別売買動向 (Monthly) past 5 months (through February) ○ buying excess ● selling excess
Overseas ○○○○○ (5 consecutive months net buying)
Individuals ●●●○● (two months net selling) (3/4 announcement)
Leading role of decarbonization: The world competes (US, EU, China moving; 850 trillion yen) (Nikkei Shimbun New Year's front-page headline)
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Today’s event! You can download the video tomorrow.
Koro Asa Seminar: April 2021 Special Edition with Mr. Makoto Fujimoto (Tokyo, Shinjuku)
Event held on Saturday, April 3, 2021 from 14:20 to 16:50
Shinjuku-ku Shinjuku 2-6-7 Shinjuku Tori East Building ANNEX 4th floor
Market outlook for April and promising stocks
Download (pay after use) is also available.
To apply and for details ⇒https://www.directform.jp/form/f.do?id=436044105426212
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