New York market
March 20, 2021 (Saturday) Cloudy - Vernal Equinox Day
NYSE
Dow: 32,627.97 USD -234.33 (-0.71%) (2 days of declines) (Dice 9 wins 3 losses)
Nasdaq: 13,215.24 points +99.07 (+0.76%) (rebound after 2 days) (Dice 9 wins 3 losses)
S&P 500: 3,913.10 -2.36 (-0.06%) (2 days of declines) (Dice 8 wins 4 losses)
CME E-mini Dow: 29,375 yen (compared to Osaka Exchange futures -115 yen) Osaka Exchange futures 29,490 yen (as of 3/19)
CME E-mini Dow: 29,350 yen (compared to Osaka Exchange futures -140 yen)
Osaka Exchange futures (as of 3/20 5:30) 29,330 yen (daily range -160 yen)
Nikkei Average (in dollars) 273.62 -3.90 (3/19) (2 days of declines)
(YTD high 288.79 (2/16) ; YTD low 263.27 (1/6) 2020 low 265.85 (12/29) 2020 high 151.99 (3/19) 2019 high 219.64 (12/17) 2018 high 180.79 (1/4))
US long-term yield (10-year Treasury): 1.7210% +0.0022 +0.13% (2-year yield 0.15% (3/18))
FX - USD/JPY: 1 USD = 108.902 JPY; EUR/JPY: 1 EUR = 129.621 JPY
(Chicago futures market yen-denominated positions: 51 weeks of long positions (net buyers 6,514) (week-on-week -12,756; 3 weeks of net buying decrease))
European stock markets
FTSE All-Share Index (London) 6,708.71 -70.97 (-1.05%) (2 days of declines)
DAX (Frankfurt) 14,621.00 -154.52 (-1.05%) (4 days of declines)
CAC 40 (Paris) 5,997.96 -64.83 (-1.07%) (2 days of declines)
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4/10 (Sat) [Koro Asa Seminar] Special Lecture: Eimei Sakurai's New Year Web Solo (recorded 4/9; downloadable)
VIX (Fear Index): 20.95 -0.63 -2.92%
VXV (3-month volatility): 24.99 -0.29 -1.15% (VXV/VIX 0.84%)
Skew Index: 143.19 +0.63 (3/17) (6 days of gains) 130+ for 81 consecutive days (from 11/18) (max 2018 159.03 on 8/13)
Fear & Greed Index: 60 (3/19)
0-25 Extreme Fear (risk-off) 76-100 Extreme Greed (risk-on)
26-50 Fear (neutral to risk-off) 51-75 Greed (neutral to risk-on)
(Below 10 is bottom, 85+ is peak over-optimism)
SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor): 3011.37 +35.15 +1.18%
Gold price: 1 troy ounce 1743.9 +11.4
Nickel price: USD 7.2538 per 1 lb +0.0042
Copper price: USD 4.0835 per 1 lb -0.0156
WTI Crude Oil: 61.46 +1.46
Baltic Dry Index: 2215.00 +110.00 (3/18) (4 trading days of gains)
(Recent high 2097.00 on 20-year 10/6; recent low 393.00 on 20-year 5/15)
Nikkei Average: 29,792.05 yen -424.70 (2 trading days of declines)
SQ Value: 29,282.41 (3/12); 26,713.47 (December Major SQ)
Six days after SQ value determined: [〇〇〇〇〇〇] 6-0
O = Nikkei average above SQ value on the day; ● = below
The more days after SQ that are below, the more likely the next month will trend downward.
NT Ratio: 14.81 -0.23 (3/19) (4-day decline)
( Jan 21, 2021 max 15.50; Feb 16 min 15.05; Jan 7 2020 max 15.21; Dec 30 min 12.90; Mar 19 2019 max 13.87; Oct 18 min 13.16; Mar 18)
Nikkei 225 moving average deviation: +0.5% (previous business day +1.9%) (often 5% deviation is a threshold)
Nikkei 200-day moving average deviation: +18.4% (previous day +20.0%) (over 40% is dangerous, 45% is the limit)
Advance-Decline Ratio (25 days): Nikkei Average 127.39 +5.12 (3/19) Recent high 127.39 (2021-03-19); low 40.12 (2020-03-16)
Mothers Index: 89.62 -7.77 (3/19) Recent high 114.70 (2021-02-05) Low 78.16 (21-03-05)
(Generally 120%+ overheat, 70% or below bottom; 60% or below is a buying opportunity)
Psychological (12 days): 58.3% (-8.3) 7 wins 5 losses (3/19) (Generally 9 wins or more indicates overheating, 3 wins or less indicates bottoming)
Matsui Securities Margin Gain/Loss (速報)
Short sellers: -20.137% (previous day -20.473%) (Feb 17, 21: -22.537%) (2020 Mar 16 +6.443%; 20 Jun 8 -18.753%)
Buyers: -2.667% (previous day -2.410%) (Feb 10 21 -2.543%) (2018 Jan 23 +1.144%; 2020 Mar 13 -31.239%)
Mothers stock network stock margin gain/loss (Matsui Securities速報)
Short sellers: +5.425% (previous day -6.176%) (Mar 8 21 +0.082%; Jan 14 -18.7694%) (2020 Mar 13 +14.653%; 2020 Jun 12 -30.992%)
Buyers: -14.470% (previous day -14.129%) (Jan 25 21 -8.43; Mar 8 -21.951%) (2018 Jan 24 +0.46%; 2020 Mar 19 -48.775%)
Credit margin rate (as of 3/12): negative 8.10% +2.11 (4-week improvement)
(Generally, negative below -15% is bottom, below -3% is ceiling)
Arbitrage buy balance: 7,022 billion JPY; week-on-week -7,089 billion (4 weeks decrease); Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section market cap ratio 0.095% (0.5% is caution line)
Short positions: 10,377 billion JPY week-on-week -1,644 billion (2 weeks consecutive decrease) (3/12) market cap 7,415,068 billion JPY (as of 3/16)
(If arbitrage buy balance enters the 5 trillion yen range, Nikkei may bottom out)
Major trading stock ownership share: 24.5%
Short selling ratio: 39.2% (previous business day 30.9%) (3/19) Under 40% for 4 consecutive trading days (3/16 onward)
(Historical: 52.1% on 2020/3/6; 51.7% on 20/3/12; 51.5% on 19/8/5; 51.2% on 19/7/18; 50.8% on 18/10/23; 50.3% on 19/3/8; 50.2% on 20/1/28)
Short selling ratio: no regulatory limit 6.6% (3/19) (2021/3/12 16.2; 19-year 3/8 14.6) (above 8% is considered a market turning point)
Nikkei HV: 22.9
Nikkei VI: 22.34 +1.72
(When below 20, buying zone; when above 40, selling zone)
CDS index: Current price 45.59 +0.30
REIT Index: 1978.30 -19.39 (7 trading days of decline; 3/19)
Nikkei Average components P/E: 23.33x, Earnings per share 1276.98 yen (3/18 1293.53 yen) (High: 2019-07-25 1795.09 yen)
(21年1/4 1084.51 yen; 20年1/6 1639.92 yen; 19年1/4 1763.93 yen; 18年1/4 1519.48 yen; 17年1/4 1180.37 yen)
Nikkei Average components PBR: 1.36x (3/19)
Simple average (all TSE First Section stocks) 2,539.26 yen +9.48 yen (2020 end 2,341.19; 19 end 2,327.02; 18 end 2,077.20; 17 end 2,946.13)
TSE investment主体別 trading trends (weekly) past 5 weeks (Week 2 of March): ○ buy, ● sell
Overseas: ○●●○○ (2 weeks of net buying)
Individuals: ●●○○● (3 weeks of net selling)
Trust banks: ●●●●● (10 weeks of net selling) (3/18 announcement) (incl. JASDAQ)
Mothers investment主体別 weekly trends past 5 weeks (Week 2 of March) ○ buy, ● sell
Overseas: ○●●●○ (4 weeks of net buying)
Individuals: ●○○○● (4 weeks of net selling) (3/18 announcement)
JASDAQ investment主体別 weekly trends past 5 weeks (Week 2 of March) ○ buy, ● sell
Overseas: ○○●●○ (3 weeks of net buying)
Individuals: ●●○○● (3 weeks of net selling) (3/18 announcement)
TSE investment主体別 monthly trends past 5 months (through February) ○ buy, ● sell
Overseas: ○○○○○ (5 months of net buying)
Individuals: ●●●○● (2 months of net selling) (3/4 announcement)
Top players in decarbonization race: the world competes (US, Europe, Japan, China moving 850 trillion yen) (Nikkei article headline on New Year’s Day 2021)
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Finally next week! Please look forward to it!!
【Koro Asa Seminar】Special lecture: Techno-Fund Association with Apollo and one thousand stock winners
March 27, 2021 (Sat) 14:20–16:50 (doors open 14:10)
Nissan Building, 2nd floor, 4-8-6 Iidabashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo
Future market outlook and promising stocks
Using fundamentals and technical analysis, clearly explained
Downloadable (pay later) option available.
Details and application ⇒https://www.directform.jp/form/f.do?id=13604ae9060d8cf
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