Emergency declaration under full consideration for repeal
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【Koroasa Seminar】 Special Lecture Techno Fundamentals Association Apollo and Kabu Katsu Sennin
March 27, 2021 (Sat) 14:20–16:50 (Doors open 14:10)
Nissan Building, 2nd Floor, 4-8-6 Iidabashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo
Future market outlook and promising stocks
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Good morning.
Today, the Kanto region is said to be in the height of spring warmth.
The cherry blossom buds are also likely to swell.
◎ Consideration to fully lift the state of emergency
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 — Clear weather
U.S. stocks
Dow: 32,825.95 (-127.51, -0.39%) (down for the first time in 8 days) (Dice 9 wins 3 losses)
Nasdaq: 13,471.57 (+11.86, +0.09%) (two-day rise) (Dice 8 wins 4 losses)
S&P 500: 3,962.68 (-6.26, -0.16%) (down for the first time in 6 days) (Dice 8 wins 4 losses)
CME 225 in USD: 29,725 yen (OSE futures +5 yen) OSE futures 29,720 yen (3/16)
CME 225 in Yen: 29,700 yen (OSE futures -20 yen)
OSE futures (as of 5:30) 29,670 yen (intraday -50 yen)
Nikkei average (in USD) 274.03 +1.79 (3/16) (two-day rebound)
Year-to-date high 2021 288.79 (2/16) Year-to-date low 21 263.27 (1/6) 20 265.85 (12/29) 19 219.64 (12/17) 180.79 (1/4)
U.S. long-term rate (U.S. 10-year Treasury) Local time 16:21 1.6214% +0.0124 +0.770% (U.S. 2-year bond) 0.15% (3/15)
FX USD/JPY: 1 USD = 108.992 JPY; EUR/JPY: 1 EUR = 129.742 JPY
(Chicago futures market Yen position 50 weeks long as of 3/2 (net long 19,270) Week-over-week -9,352, down for two weeks)
European stock markets
FTSE All-Share Index (London) 6,803.61 +53.91 (+0.80%) (two-day rebound)
DAX 40 (Frankfurt) 14,557.58 +96.16 (+0.66%) (three-day rebound) (new all-time high)
CAC 40 (Paris) 6,055.43 +19.46 (+0.32%) (two-day rebound)
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3/27 (Sat) 【Koroasa Seminar】 Techno Fundamentals Club Apollo and Kabu Katsu Sennin (Tokyo, Iidabashi)
https://www.directform.jp/form/f.do?id=13604ae9060d8cf
4/3 (Sat) 【Koroasa Seminar】 April Special: God of Market Blessing arrives (Tokyo, Shinjuku)
https://www.directform.jp/form/f.do?id=436044105426212
- On the 16th, both the government of Japan and the United States will hold a 2+2 meeting in Tokyo on foreign affairs and defense.
A draft document criticizing activities around the Senkaku Islands will be consolidated.
The Coast Guard Law positions the Coast Guard as a strictly military organization, noting “serious concerns.”
- The government is considering fully lifting the state of emergency related to COVID-19.
In Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba, hospital bed usage is decreasing, making lifting by the 21st a plausible plan.
Decision to be made on the 18th.
- The timing of digital wage payments is likely to be delayed.
The government planned to finalize the system by March and start in spring, but opposing views at the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare committee make a decision within the month difficult.
The union argues concerns about the safety of funds-transfer operators used for salary payments.
- In Europe, AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine rollout is temporarily paused amid reports of potential blood clots.
Causality is unclear, and the company claims no safety issues.
The WHO also supports continuing vaccinations.
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) continues to investigate the link between vaccination and blood clots, with a conclusion expected by the 18th.
- The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare will revise guidelines for telework by the end of the month.
Telework is expanding due to the pandemic, but adoption levels vary by industry.
Aimed at stabilizing leading corporate initiatives and supporting hesitant companies.
- The Japan Center for Economic Research on the 16th reported in the ESP Forecast by private economists that all 35 respondents believe the economy passed the trough in 2020.
They expect GDP decline in 2021 Q1–Q3 to be small.
- The Council for Science, Technology and Innovation announced the "6th Basic Plan for Science, Technology and Innovation" for the five-year period from 2021 and suggested a total R&D budget of 30 trillion yen.
Aims to stop Japan's loss of research strength and pursue digital transformation and decarbonization, with challenges ahead.
- The Tokyo Stock Exchange’s professional market, TPM, is seeing a rapid increase in new listings.
As regional revitalization expands, regional banks are also supporting this.
Japan M&A Center [closing price 6120 yen] is strengthening listing support; TPM-listed ETFs may become a gateway for regional companies to enter the stock market.
- Myanmar’s core industry, the textile sector, is being unsettled.
Ongoing political turmoil makes operations difficult, and some companies express critical stances toward the Myanmar military.
Fast Retailing [9983] [closing price 95,190 yen] stopped five of its plants for production recently.
European apparel majors are also halting orders in response.
Shimamura [8227] [closing price 10,990 yen] experiencing delays in Myanmar procurement, considering production in China and Southeast Asia as replacements.
Wacoal [3591] [closing price 2,484 yen] suspended operations at some lingerie production plants for a period.
Adastria [2685] [closing price 1,930 yen] delays in delivery of 2–3 weeks; considering temporary halt of Myanmar production in April and shifting to Vietnam, Indonesia, and China for alternate production.
- Foxconn (Hon Hai) Precision Industry of Taiwan on the 16th announced it will build its first EV plant in North America.
Decide in Mexico or Wisconsin within the year.
- Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor plant in Texas halted; world smartphone production in 4Q–6Q is expected to drop by about 5%.
From the plant stoppage to the 16th, about one month. Qualcomm’s supply of smartphone semiconductors to Samsung is also disrupted.
- Renewed tensions between the UK and the EU after the UK left the EU at end-2020.
EU has begun legal procedures after the UK unilaterally changed the agreement on the Ireland/Northern Ireland border.
- Ten labor unions representing Indian state-owned bank employees plan a nationwide strike on 15–16 to oppose privatization policy.
The unions say about one million participated on the first day. Opposition to Modi administration’s reforms is broadening.
- Global COVID-19 case counts and deaths (as of 4/3 4:00 PM, Johns Hopkins University): World total 1,202.27 million cases and 70,69 deaths
U.S. 29,495,421 (74,0) Brazil 11,519,609 (1,057) India 11,409,831 (131) Russia 4,350,728 (400) U.K. 4,276,840 (64) France 4,132,104 (341)
Italy 3,238,394 (354) Spain 3,195,062 (168) Turkey 2,894,893 (63) Germany 2,585,385 (238) Colombia 2,305,884 (100) Argentina 2,201,886 (166)
From here, published in 【Koroasa Premium】
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3/27 (Sat) 【Koroasa Seminar】 Techno Fundamentals Club Apollo and Kabu Katsu Sennin (Tokyo, Iidabashi)
https://www.directform.jp/form/f.do?id=13604ae9060d8cf
4/3 (Sat) 【Koroasa Seminar】 April Special: God of Market returns (Tokyo, Shinjuku)
https://www.directform.jp/form/f.do?id=436044105426212
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