Translate the below html to English, keep format html, the result is not in markdown code and not break line, convert standard decode before translate: 順張りか逆張りかは意味が無い English translation: There is no meaning in whether it is following the trend or c
Long or short selling, either way it ends by which direction it moves up or down afterward
You have to extend the profit and realize profits or cut losses; that’s all
Since you can’t target trends or ranges, waiting just results in losses or profits
Trend = doesn’t appear
Range = steady losses
Steady losses, big gains
Steady gains, big losses
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If you offset these, you end up at zero; there’s no value in doing it
Zero plus spreads and other factors shows it’s a negative game
Dow Theory and waves are just traders’ prospect theory
“All of it is luck”
Prospect theory = logic that only extended profits or only waited
You’re just doing the opposite of those traders; it’s occult
Dow Theory patterns merely appear
Patterns cannot be quantified or programmed
Because everything is the result of traders’ expectations
“Just thinking of scenarios as results”
Profit extension = a single shot has too few opportunities
Therefore averaging down becomes mainstream; obviously, averaging down repeatedly becomes mainstream
People cannot win once they use stop losses
There’s no choice but to trade using margin calls and similar loss-cut mechanisms
Averaging-down logic is
Because the stop loss range changes with the number of averaging-downs
Zero-cut is the best way to cut losses
When thinking with Prospect Theory
Conditions include not forcing all at once on a single loss
Then keep averaging down, take profit, and reset capital movement
All are hindsight results, so averaging down works better
Hindsight results = hedging with averaging down
Ultimately, whether a trend appears depends on the result
If you understand, you would close positions with no effort and your assets would grow quickly
There’s no need to trade manually; if you look at trend logic in automated trading, you’ll see it’s marginal
If averaging down is a diversified logic, there’s no need to upgrade it with stop losses
In the end, if you incur a loss, you must compensate with more profits in pips
No matter how you look at it, averaging down fares better
If you could cut losses in the first place, using averaging down would be absolutely better
The market direction is unpredictable; hindsight results
Therefore, basically adopt a style of hedging one side and averaging down on the other
If a trend appears, you can just trade in that direction
If it returns, you can hedge again with averaging down
Averaging down = thinking it will return
If you think it will return, you keep thinking it will return, leading to massive losses
Averaging down should be fixed in pips
1:1 and 1:2 logics are mostly meaningless
One shot = 20 pips
Averaging down = 50 pips
That’s the only way to manage
One shot
Infinite losses: infinite profits
But
If you average down
Funds won’t last
It’s not infinite losses anymore
There’s no method that guarantees winning
A logic that can win even when cut losses and profit-taking are set is the logic that should be held
Any logic will eventually face that pattern, so it only seems like you can win
Averaging down feels like you’re saved regardless of logic, so it’s easy to make mistakes
Averaging down drags a logic; it’s inefficient whether you’re good or bad
No matter how skilled you are, you can’t avoid big losses
If you try to avoid big losses, you won’t make as much profit as a single-shot, and the profits won’t be that large
Carrying losses with hedging gives a benefit that aligns with Dow Theory
Averaging down only works in a range; because it’s range, averaging down has meaning
You cannot distinguish range from trend; if a trend appears, averaging down disappears
In the end, you have to focus only on the trend
Doing it with a single shot is the best
