How can I effectively use stepping/Tanpin (doubling down) for arbitrage or hedging?
When you double-dip into a reversal and it goes bad, you get slapped back and forth
When you double-dip into a reversal and it goes well, profits keep coming
Will it succeed
Will it fail
or which one?
That is double-dip reversal
Is double-dip reversal effective?
From the perspective of stop losses, it is “effective”
However, the market is made by the trader’s expectations
In other words, the market moves in a way that wins for both sides
Sometime a market will come that you cannot understand
Sometime a market will repeatedly occur that is the exact opposite of your prediction
From the standpoint of this fact
Is double-dip reversal truly effective?
The answer would be no, right?
Eventually, double-dip reversal will fail somewhere
With that in mind
From the perspective of a single-shot stop-loss trade, it is more effective
Similarly, with nunping, you should trade from the single-shot perspective
By doing so
Since nunpin can be traded with the same single-shot action, it is effective
However,
double-dip reversal changes direction as the name implies
It triggers a large number of back-and-forth slaps and expands losses
By enforcing a stop loss
losses can be reduced
By incorporating market intuition and discretion
you can also escape from the back-and-forth slaps
In double-dip reversal you cannot escape from those back-and-forth slaps
Why is that
Because you believe there is a trend when actually it’s a false signal
Because you believe there is a trend
Since you believe in the trend,
you will continue to be slapped back and forth
Even if you widen the range, the win rate may improve, but
you will also enlarge the range of those big back-and-forth slaps
and you will incur such losses again
Behind double-dip reversal
there lies such a reality
Please always cut losses and take a break. This is essential