The moment I became able to make a profit with FX = the day I stopped chasing the market
I have now become able to increase capital through FX
There are days with profits and days with losses, but overall I always make a profit
The reason for that is
Because I stopped chasing the market
I stopped trying to chase profits from the market
It sounds like a contradiction, but due to the nature of the money game, this kind of thinking brings the most profit
Profit came because I lost my greed
If you lose greed, you stop caring about profits or losses
And you are led to just the result, so you end up winning
Then
What does it mean to not chase the market? The know-how that pursues that is the content
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The trades I used to do in the past
A method that takes from both trends and ranges
Long bias toward trending markets
Ninpin (averaging down) in contrarian trades
and so on — both winning and losing trading logics I have practiced
But during that period, regardless of length, the total profit did not last
At some point the gears would slip
If you were trading with high risk, your results would clearly reflect it, but
Since I was trading with reduced risk
I didn’t see a clearly right-shoulder-down trend, so my realization was delayed
After realizing, years had passed and I regretted that my previous trading history had gone to waste
The more proactive you become, the more you lose in the market
An aggressive approach destroys you in FX
It also carries more risk
This isn’t simply about not taking on risk or taking on less risk
In other words, it’s a matter of how many losses vs how many profits
Even if you have a big profit once,
if you have six losses before that
the result will be a nonproductive or losing outcome
To be aggressive means
In the market, you have zero market feel, so unless you move in the direction of the market you will incur losses
Aggressive trading tends to be losses because it’s trades made without a solid basis
At this point, even if you gain profits, the tendency toward losses makes the outcome Negative by force
Therefore
You should engage in trades with a clear basis and a solid trading logic
Only then will trades that produce results be refined
An aggressive mindset does not exist in the market
An aggressive mindset lies in presenting the basis for market direction
Consider the reasons the market moves when entering a position
This applies to both trend-following and counter-trend approaches
Both have pros and cons, so
Please use the logic you want
There are various trend-following and counter-trend logics
Here I’ll consider them as a Trend or Range logic
In the trend logic
Where do the moving reasons lie?
In volatile periods
See whether multiple timeframes show a trend
Ensure the timeframe you trade on is actually trending
and so on
I think deeply about the trend
But I don’t look for the trend itself directly
I always focus on the parts that form the mechanism of the trend
The direct trigger factors have a mechanism behind them
By confirming that mechanism, you can find the basis for movement
The same general idea applies to range trading
If you understand the mechanism behind market moves
you look for the moving basis on that mechanism and trade with conviction
Trade frequency should be modest
Being too aggressive won’t yield profits
In aggressive trading, profits tend to be highly influenced by luck
Always find and capture the basis
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In trading, it’s better to simplify things rather than constantly thinking up ideas or logics
Keep stops and single-shot trades simple to prevent old losing habits
This is a method that has prevented past losses
It can be read as the adage in investing: “Never lose for a year”
Lossless trading comes from familiarity
In other words
If you cannot win, you have become used to unwinning trades
Emotional causes and other factors exist, but the big obstacle is still habit
To eliminate that habit, use a logic that is not emotional and keeps you balanced to avoid losses
Do not engage in averaging down or double-nothing trades
If you trade following greed, it becomes a severe weakness when you’re prone to losses
You will end up losing quickly
As a condition for not losing,
Use a balanced approach like stops and single-shot trades so your results don’t skew
(Fixed loss with limited loss and unlimited reward, and single-shot with unlimited loss and unlimited reward) Ultimately aiming for profitability
However, don’t trade with the mindset of trying to make money
Fixing losses or repeatedly incurring losses makes your mindset fragile
Anyone can experience losses, but
you tend to think in terms of gains or losses after several losses
At that time, you need the resolve to lock in profits when the market is weak
With that resolve, ± results come naturally
Be decisive in taking profits and managing gains and losses—this is what you should do
Markets that break off in the middle tend to suppress profits (profit- stretching markets)
Compared to stops, trading in single-shot or even adapting can reduce unnecessary losses
Take profits while the price is rising with a stop
Usually, use a single-shot trade
In that manner
In my sense, I should only trade in places where the price is rising
But if you think about it with head and tail theory
Head to torso
Torso to tail
You will trade in either the head-to-torso or the torso-to-tail way
Joining in the middle means
If you sense you have deviated from a trend-following idea in past markets,
you can anticipate a trend becoming larger by judging past markets
It’s easier to detect larger trends from the torso to the tail
Trading from the head to the torso has a high probability of a breakout trigger
Only trade from the head to the torso when the market has the factors to breakout
If you try to target the head to the tail, it becomes a swing trade in four-hour or daily charts
Entry also becomes less frequent, so only those who can tolerate long-term patience should do it
Also
It’s important not to involve yourself in the market every time
Because indicators often move greatly on announcements; paying attention to announcements helps, but
If you are always in the market, there are many perplexing market situations
Always engaging in the market is like a long-term trading swing—use it effectively
What is the framework to earn in the market
Efficiency
A method you can continue to use
Reproducibility
It must be a concept that can be eternally applied as a routine task in trading
Because you’ll always be in the market, you also need a logic that can continually increase capital in the market
A logic is not about parameter problems
Market action is the logic — aiming for breakout markets (head-to-torso theory), major trend markets (torso-to-tail theory), etc.
Repeating the same trades is the key to success
You might think, “Is that all there is?” but, yes, really, that’s all
There is only one or two logics; even if there are many, they’re not effectively usable
You’ll use one or two; that’s it
Unless you use an EA, manual trading should be efficient with two or fewer logics
To avoid confusing market sense and market recognition, keep to one or two logics
Three or more logics cannot be harmonized (as with opposite logics like trend-following and contrarian)
Both market and logic would inevitably collapse
Reproducibility and efficiency are essential—being able to maintain routine work and easy capital growth
Breakouts and major trend markets are the orthodox approach, and they target the breakdown of the uniformity of buying and selling, making them easy to trade