Risk-off factors, monetary policy, and economic indicators to watch! Okachanman's important events of the week you can understand in 1 minute (Week of May 4)
This Week's Economic Indicators! Three key events that Okachanman is watching
① Risk-off factors (U.S.-China relations, crude oil prices, North Korea)
② Monetary policy (RBA Board, BOE monetary policy)
③ Economic indicators (ISM Services Index, U.S. unemployment statistics)
Inishie FX Blog
(Below is the transcription of the video)
Hello everyone, this is Okachanman. I’d like to talk about this week’s points of focus. The three focal points this week are first, risk-off factors; second, monetary policy; and third, economic indicators.
First, the risk-off factors: U.S.-China relations, crude oil prices, and North Korea. On U.S.-China relations, there has been significant back-and-forth over where the coronavirus originated. Crude oil prices have remained down and have not yet rebounded, so attention is on when they might drop again. Also, in the past week or two, there has been a lot of chatter about North Korea's moves, so I think we should keep an eye on that as well.
Regarding monetary policy, this week there will be the RBA rate decision in Australia and the BOE monetary policy announcement in the United Kingdom. For the UK, this is a quarterly important policy event with an inflation report released at the same time.
For the third point, economic indicators: ISM Services Index and U.S. employment statistics. The United States is a consumer-driven economy, so I think attention will be on how the service sector—areas outside manufacturing—are faring, and also on the long-discussed surge in initial unemployment claims, which indicates many job losses. This week's employment data is attracting a lot of attention.
This week, due to the Golden Week, the Tokyo market is expected to be quite quiet. Personally, I recall last year there was a lot of talk about a flash crash around this time, but this year I’m not hearing much of that, which makes me think a flash crash could occur when people least expect it. In particular, given the global economic strain from COVID, conditions that make the market lean toward quietness seem to be present. So I think there’s potential for a flash crash in the early hours, around the pre-Tokyo session, during the Asia-Pacific hours. In such quiet market conditions, price swings can occur, so I want to stress the importance of solid risk management.
So with that, let’s do our best this week as well. This was Okachanman.
