[US Stocks] Stock index rise detached from the real economy
Hello, Reiman (@Lehman1980).
The US stock market had been on an upward trend,
but by the weekend it moved to erase this week's gains.
The S&P 500 index fell from 3386 on February 19, the all-time high, to 2237 at the close on March 23, a drop of 1150 points (about 34%).
It is the bottom closing level at 2237 on March 23, 1150 points (about 34% drop).
On the other hand, April saw the stock market rise for the first time in 33 years, gaining about 12.6%.
https://jp.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data
This is the SBI Securities account summary. (End of May 1)
Current unrealized losses are as below, and the cumulative profit and dividends show a loss of$10,000.
The unrealized loss had briefly fallen below $2500, but in the end it is almost unchanged from two weeks ago.
Securities traded
Sell: AAPL all, GIS (50→55→30), VGT all, WBK (50→20)
Buy: VT, MSFT, WMT
Short-term trades: PG, SPXS
VGT was disposed of when it turned positive. At some point I plan to switch to QQQ.
The two short-term trades were stopped out.
Summary
The market, after a sharp drop, is pausing the rapid rise; the next move may be a correction or heading to a second bottom.
Already, Thursday and Friday may have shown signs of this.
Thanks to monetary easing in various countries, stock prices that had become cheap have risen somewhat, but
the real economy continues to deteriorate, and US unemployment claims have exceeded 30 million in the past six weeks.
https://jp.reuters.com/article/idJP00000500_20200501_00120200430
The article above also notes that various stocks are struggling.
IT-related names such as TWTR and AMZN, which had been bought, have started to fall.
In the near term, a high-volatility market is expected to continue.
Going forward, while keeping an eye on shrinking losses, I plan to gradually rotate stocks.
