New coronavirus, crude oil prices, and economic indicators in focus! Okachanman's 1-minute rundown of this week's key events (week of April 20)
This week's economic indicators! Three key events that Okachan-man is watching
① Novel Coronavirus
② Crude oil prices
③ Economic indicators
Ancient FX Blog
(Below is a transcript of the video)
Hello everyone, this is Okachan-man. I’d like to talk about this week's points of attention. First, the points of attention for this week: first, the coronavirus; second, crude oil prices; third, economic indicators.
First about the coronavirus: whether restrictions will be eased. Centered in Europe, the infection pace of the coronavirus is gradually decreasing, so areas that previously had stay-at-home orders are starting to ease them little by little. How far and in what form this will progress is one notable point. The second point is corona diplomacy. Up till now, at times the coronavirus itself has been a risk-off factor, but going forward the virus is settling down a bit, and questions arise about who is to blame, whether the WHO is a puppet of China, or whether the US will suspend contributions. There are concerns that the next phase of adversarial actions between the US and China could begin with the coronavirus. I think this area will be a focus regarding the coronavirus going forward.
The second point is crude oil prices. Recently, OPEC+ and/or the G20 agreed to cut production, but that alone is not enough, so producers with unprofitable operations are stopping output, leading to bankruptcies. It seems this trend may settle somewhere, so the question is where crude oil prices will bottom out as these cuts and bankruptcies continue. Also, if the coronavirus situation calms, demand might increase a little, which could support crude oil prices again.
The third topic is economic indicators. This week, PMI figures will be released in Europe, the UK, and the US. PMI is watched as a leading indicator, so it’s very important. In particular, this week is a flash release, so there is a high possibility that the actual results will differ from forecasts, so pay attention. Employment is also important: the UK will release its employment data, the US has recently been focusing on the weekly initial jobless claims, and Turkey’s policy rate will also be announced. So these four are the main focus, I think.
This week, I believe the coronavirus will remain central, but as it becomes more priced in, the market may lack direction, so it could be a week to look for the next catalyst. However, volatility has been easing a bit, so it might become a more tradable week.
With that, let's do our best this week as well. This was Okachan-man.
