[U.S. Stocks] Current status of the past portfolio
Happy New Year. This is Lehman (@Lehman1980).
On January 2, the first day of the year, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, didn't it?
For now, until January 14, the eve of the U.S.-China signing, it seems to be on an upward trend.
What if the portfolio remained as it was?
Today, as a New Year special, if the portfolio had remained as it was,
I’d like to look back at where it stood at the end of December 2019.
Portfolio as of September
Top 3 risers: ABBV, MSFT, MO
ABBV rose strongly from the summer. It achieved a 30% gain in four months!
This is the allure of individual stocks. There are even more amazing gains with junk stocks, but to see this rise in a global big company is remarkable.
At this time,MSFT, V, and PYPL were also held, but the volatility was too high to hold, making it difficult to keep.
Therefore, after twists and turns, I’m nowswitching to VGT.
Top 3 decliners: AWR, KO, CSCO
On the other hand,AWR is one of the American water utility companies, and, similar to electric/gas stocks in Japan,
it is a defensive stock and has been on a downward trend.
Also, overall profit margin is currently the highest among the portfolio.
November portfolio
Top 3 risers: ABBV, BTI, BHP
ABBV took partial profit from September to November.
BTI was something to hold. I sold some at a build-up price and now hold roughly the same amount at a higher price.
However, with tobacco stocks (BTI, MO, PM), they tend to move in a box range,
so instead of regular dollar-cost averaging,consider buying more when prices drop (or selling at high and buying at the bottom) as an approach as well.
Likewise,BHP should have been held. It was sold with a small profit.
If U.S.-China negotiations stall again and commodity markets fall, stock prices will likely move in tandem,
so I’d like to buy again at low prices.
Top 3 decliners: WBK, PFF, MCD
In 2019, it posted a sizable loss (though only a few hundred dollars). It was the only stock with a significant loss.
WBK was indicted by Australian authorities on money-laundering charges.
Subsequently, its stock price plummeted, and for several months now it has remained subdued. It proves that “bad news is best sold immediately.”
This is similar to Nissan in Japan.
At the start of the year, it became public that Carlos Ghosn fled to Lebanon,
and the stock price remains long-term depressed.
Right after the November 2018 arrest, it stayed around 1,000 yen, but
it has steadily fallen and is now in the 600-yen range.
There is potential for stock price to plunge on earnings downgrades,
and scandals can have bottomless repercussions; I have learned this firsthand ( ;∀;)
Summary
Compared to September and November PF, it has about $10,000 more,
but the unrealized gains and losses didn’t change much. This is partly due to WBK, but
shifting to high-dividend stocks reduced stock price risk.
If there is a gradual rise in stock prices, buying more would be easier, but
for stocks that rose sharply, selling could secure several years’ worth of dividends.
By weighing profit-taking against holding at a bargain,
I want to continue to aim for stable profits in 2020 as well!
End
