【GG_Signal Settlement Report September 2026】What was different between the August 3 entry that won against the yen’s appreciation due to intervention and the July 2024 losses
Settled in SeptemberGG_Signalsignals were 43 times, totaling +293,063 yen.
Among them, +155,503 yen came from 11 trades entered on August 3 against the yen strength. From July 30 to August 3, the government and the Bank of Japan intervened in yen purchases for three days.
Bets against yen-strength interventions do not always revert. After the July 2024 intervention, the yen stayed strong for a full month. By comparing with past interventions, I investigated what was different this time.
GG_Signal’s six types of signals
GG_Signalissues six kinds of signals. The initial letter of each name denotes the strategy type: PB and RSI4 ride the trend with a pullback, SP-A, SP-K, and SP-5 target reversals after a sharp move, and GAP is buying at the start of the week.
| Name | Aim | Timeframe to watch | Effective holding period | Pair | Lot size for this report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB | Pullback・Trend following | Daily | Up to 1 week | 13 | 0.1 |
| SP-A | Return after a sharp move・Reversal | 1-hour | About 4 weeks | 28 | 0.08 |
| SP-K | Return after a sharp move・Reversal | 1-hour | About 4 weeks | 15 | 0.12 |
| SP-5 | Return after a sharp move・Reversal | 1-hour | About 4 weeks (if the profit-taking or stop-loss range is reached beforehand, close) | 28 | 0.022 per strength unit |
| GAP | Buy on Monday morning・Only buy | 1-hour | Up to 24 hours | 28 | 1.0 |
| RSI4 | Pullback・Trend following | 4-hour | 72 hours | 4 | 0.42 |
The effective holding period is a period during which the expected value remained positive up to that time, as verified by testing. Of course, early exit decisions are also possible.
Profit and loss are counted with the same lot size across signals to align the monthly P&L variation. If you hold a signal for 4 weeks and another one for 1 day with the same lot, the possible losses would differ manyfold. PB and SP-5 are a bit heavier.
43 trades settled in September
Total settlements: 43, winners 29, +293,063 yen (PF 2.74). In 190 months since 2011, this is the 47th month from the top.
By signal, RSI4 had 8 wins for +104,214 yen, SP-A had 4 wins for +82,080 yen, SP-5 had 31 wins for +106,769 yen. PB, SP-K, and GAP had no settlements.
Reasons for settlements: effective holding period elapsed for 30 trades for +227,289 yen, SP-5 profit-taking for 8 trades for +105,551 yen, and 5 stop-loss trades for −39,777 yen.
RSI4 included three dollar-yen sells, of which two entries on August 29 and September 25 both won in the +60,000 yen range. The EURUSD buy entered on September 14, around the FRB rate hike on September 17, resulted in −45,562 yen.
SP-A and SP-5 typically hold for about 4 weeks, so many of the settled positions in September were opened in August. The positions are listed in order of entry (Japan time).
Open the list of 43 entries (entry time, settlement time, signal, pair, buy/sell, lot, settlement, P/L)
| Entry time | Settlement time | Signal | Pair | Buy/Sell | Lot | Settlement | P/L (yen) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 00:03 | 9/1 00:01 | SP-5 | EURCAD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding period | +675 |
| 8/1 00:03 | 9/1 00:01 | SP-5 | GBPCAD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding period | +1,731 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | AUDJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +7,843 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | CADJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +6,389 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | CHFJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +5,260 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | EURCHF | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +2,721 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | EURJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +8,540 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/2 06:05 | SP-5 | GBPJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +9,099 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | NZDJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +3,379 |
| 8/3 06:05 | 9/1 06:05 | SP-5 | USDJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +5,575 |
| 8/3 10:03 | 9/1 13:01 | SP-A | CHFJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding period | +31,760 |
| 8/3 10:03 | 9/1 15:01 | SP-A | CADJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding period | +32,304 |
| 8/3 10:03 | 9/1 18:01 | SP-A | EURJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding period | +42,632 |
| 8/7 01:03 | 9/5 01:01 | SP-5 | EURCHF | Sell | 0.088 | Holding period | −10,221 |
| 8/7 01:03 | 9/5 01:01 | SP-5 | GBPCHF | Sell | 0.088 | Holding period | −7,666 |
| 8/7 22:03 | 9/4 04:01 | SP-5 | AUDUSD | Sell | 0.022 | Stop loss | −4,966 |
| 8/7 22:03 | 9/8 03:01 | SP-A | USDJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding period | −24,616 |
| 8/13 13:03 | 9/11 13:01 | SP-5 | GBPNZD | Sell | 0.066 | Holding period | −4,358 |
| 8/14 01:03 | 9/12 01:01 | SP-5 | EURCAD | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +469 |
| 8/17 10:03 | 9/2 17:01 | SP-5 | EURNZD | Buy | 0.022 | Profit-taking | +5,127 |
| 8/19 22:03 | 9/3 20:01 | SP-5 | USDJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Stop loss | −4,842 |
| 8/19 22:03 | 9/3 21:01 | SP-5 | GBPCAD | Sell | 0.022 | Profit-taking | +5,518 |
| 8/19 22:03 | 9/14 17:01 | SP-5 | NZDUSD | Sell | 0.022 | Profit-taking | +4,376 |
| 8/19 22:03 | 9/17 04:01 | SP-5 | EURUSD | Sell | 0.088 | Profit-taking | +23,207 |
| 8/19 22:03 | 9/17 04:01 | SP-5 | GBPUSD | Sell | 0.088 | Profit-taking | +29,021 |
| 8/19 22:03 | 9/17 22:01 | SP-5 | AUDUSD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding period | −726 |
| 8/19 23:03 | 9/14 22:01 | SP-5 | NZDUSD | Sell | 0.088 | Profit-taking | +22,478 |
| 8/19 23:03 | 9/17 04:01 | SP-5 | USDCHF | Buy | 0.022 | Profit-taking | +9,629 |
| 8/19 23:03 | 9/17 23:01 | SP-5 | USDCAD | Buy | 0.088 | Holding period | +16,489 |
| 8/29 00:03 | 9/17 04:01 | SP-5 | USDCHF | Sell | 0.022 | Stop loss | −7,897 |
| 8/29 00:03 | 9/29 00:01 | SP-5 | EURGBP | Buy | 0.022 | Holding period | +316 |
| 8/29 00:03 | 9/29 00:01 | SP-5 | GBPCHF | Sell | 0.022 | Holding period | −4,520 |
| 8/29 03:01 | 9/2 23:01 | RSI4 | EURUSD | Buy | 0.42 | Holding period | +12,277 |
| 8/29 03:01 | 9/2 23:01 | RSI4 | GBPUSD | Buy | 0.42 | Holding period | −12,844 |
| 8/29 03:01 | 9/2 23:01 | RSI4 | USDJPY | Sell | 0.42 | Holding period | +62,412 |
| 9/2 23:03 | 9/24 10:01 | SP-5 | USDCAD | Buy | 0.022 | Profit-taking | +6,195 |
| 9/3 07:01 | 9/8 03:01 | RSI4 | GBPUSD | Buy | 0.42 | Holding period | +36,355 |
| 9/10 01:03 | 9/25 00:01 | SP-5 | USDCHF | Sell | 0.044 | Stop loss | −16,961 |
| 9/10 22:03 | 9/24 02:05 | SP-5 | NZDUSD | Buy | 0.022 | Stop loss | −5,111 |
| 9/14 19:01 | 9/17 19:01 | RSI4 | EURUSD | Buy | 0.42 | Holding period | −45,562 |
| 9/18 15:01 | 9/23 11:01 | RSI4 | EURJPY | Sell | 0.42 | Holding period | +7,014 |
| 9/18 15:01 | 9/23 11:01 | RSI4 | USDJPY | Sell | 0.42 | Holding period | −18,144 |
| 9/25 03:01 | 9/29 23:01 | RSI4 | USDJPY | Sell | 0.42 | Holding period | +62,706 |
All 11 trades entered at 06:05 and 10:03 on August 3 won. The 06:05 trades were eight SP-5 ones (seven yen-denominated and one EURCHF bought), and the 10:03 trades were three SP-A ones.
Three days from July 30
Until July 29, the USD/JPY hovered around 163 yen.
During the 22nd hour on July 30, USD/JPY fell from 162.96 to 159.74 in one hour, then briefly touched 157.97 in the next hour. The Ministry of Finance later disclosed the daily amount of yen-buying intervention as 7.9756 trillion yen. It was the largest single-day intervention on record.
There was another intervention of 5.5523 trillion yen on July 31. On that same day, the BOJ meeting kept rates unchanged, with one member proposing a rate hike. Toward the end of New York trading, yen buying resumed, and USD/JPY ended the week at 157.39.
At 06:05 on August 3, SP-5 issued eight signals against yen strength. Three hours later, at 09:00, USD/JPY dropped from 157.58 to 155.22. The intervention that day totaled 1.8714 trillion yen. SP-A had three trades immediately afterward at 10:03.
The three days of intervention totaled 15.3993 trillion yen, the largest monthly intervention to date.
There have been six past yen-buying interventions
In the records since 2011, there have been six yen-buying interventions (interventions within a week are counted as one).
Yen-buying interventions and the yen and U.S. interest rates
