【GG_Signal Settlement Report October 2026】Our entry on September 4, when the yen was strengthening, that lost, and what was different from the winning September 2024
Settled in OctoberGG_Signalsignals were 62 trades in total, with a net of −89,885 yen.
Among them, −119,040 yen came from seven trades entered against the yen strength on the night of September 4. Excluding these seven trades, October was a positive month.
Positions that participated under the same entry conditions as 9/4 have occurred 46 times since 2011, and two-thirds of them were profitable. Why did this time become a loss? I examined it by lining up two similar previous examples.
Six signals of GG_Signal
GG_Signal emits six kinds of signals. The initial letter of the name indicates the type of strategy: PB and RSI4 are pullback entry following the trend, SP-A, SP-K, and SP-5 are contrarian plays aiming at a rebound after a sharp move, and GAP is a buy at the start of the week.
| Name | Aim | Time Frame | Active Holding Period | Pairs | Lot in this Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB | Pullback / Following the trend | Daily | Maximum 1 week | 13 | 0.1 |
| SP-A | Return after sharp move / contrarian | 1-hour | About 4 weeks | 28 | 0.08 |
| SP-K | Return after sharp move / contrarian | 1-hour | About 4 weeks | 15 | 0.12 |
| SP-5 | Return after sharp move / contrarian | 1-hour | About 4 weeks（If take profit or stop loss reached earlier, close） | 28 | 0.022 per strength unit |
| GAP | Week opening / only buy | 1-hour | Up to 24 hours | 28 | 1.0 |
| RSI4 | Pullback / Following the trend | 4-hour | 72 hours | 4 | 0.42 |
The active holding period is the duration during which holding until that time yielded a positive expectation in testing. Of course, an early exit is also possible.
Profit and loss are counted with a per-signal lot that aligns the monthly P/L variance. If you hold a signal for 4 weeks and one for 1 day with the same lot size, the possible loss amount differs by many times. PB and SP-5 are a bit heavier.
62 trades settled in October
There were 62 settlements, 27 wins, net −89,885 yen (PF 0.72). In 190 months since 2011, this is the 23rd from the bottom.
By signal, SP-A had 16 trades for −61,518 yen, SP-5 had 43 trades for −51,793 yen. RSI4 (2 trades, +15,326 yen) and GAP (1 trade, +8,100 yen) were winners; PB had no settlements.
Reasons for settlements: valid holding period expiration was 47 trades for −112,258 yen; SP-5 profit-taking was 9 trades for +83,558 yen; stops were hit on 6 trades for −61,185 yen.
SP-A and SP-5 tend to hold about 4 weeks, so many of the October settled lots entered in September. I list all positions in the order they were opened (Japan time).
Open the 62-trade list (open time, settlement time, P/L)
| Open Time | Settlement Time | Signal | Pair | Buy/Sell | Lot | Settlement | P/L (yen) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/2 00:03 | 10/1 00:01 | SP-5 | EURCHF | Sell | 0.088 | Holding Period | −14,720 |
| 9/3 00:03 | 10/2 00:01 | SP-5 | EURCAD | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | −405 |
| 9/4 08:03 | 10/5 08:01 | SP-5 | CADCHF | Sell | 0.022 | Holding Period | +1,311 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/5 22:01 | SP-5 | AUDCAD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding Period | +837 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/5 22:01 | SP-5 | CADJPY | Buy | 0.066 | Holding Period | −9,352 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/5 22:01 | SP-5 | CHFJPY | Buy | 0.088 | Holding Period | −15,321 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/5 22:01 | SP-5 | GBPJPY | Buy | 0.066 | Holding Period | −8,290 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/5 23:01 | SP-A | GBPJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −14,344 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/6 06:05 | SP-5 | EURJPY | Buy | 0.066 | Holding Period | −24,301 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/6 09:01 | SP-A | EURJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −29,464 |
| 9/4 22:03 | 10/6 10:01 | SP-A | CHFJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −17,968 |
| 9/7 18:03 | 10/6 20:01 | SP-A | GBPJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | +4,360 |
| 9/7 18:03 | 10/6 22:01 | SP-A | USDJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | +29,416 |
| 9/7 18:03 | 10/7 05:01 | SP-A | CHFJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −5,352 |
| 9/7 18:03 | 10/7 05:01 | SP-A | EURJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −11,248 |
| 9/7 18:03 | 10/7 08:01 | SP-A | NZDJPY | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −15,072 |
| 9/10 22:03 | 10/5 21:01 | SP-5 | GBPNZD | Sell | 0.022 | Stop | −7,839 |
| 9/10 22:03 | 10/9 22:01 | SP-5 | NZDCAD | Buy | 0.088 | Holding Period | −2,510 |
| 9/10 22:03 | 10/10 04:01 | SP-A | NZDCAD | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −2,109 |
| 9/10 22:03 | 10/12 06:05 | SP-5 | EURNZD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding Period | +593 |
| 9/10 22:03 | 10/12 12:01 | SP-A | EURNZD | Sell | 0.08 | Holding Period | −36 |
| 9/14 08:03 | 10/2 07:01 | SP-5 | NZDCHF | Sell | 0.044 | Profit | +6,674 |
| 9/14 08:03 | 10/13 16:01 | SP-5 | GBPCHF | Sell | 0.11 | Holding Period | −725 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/1 14:01 | SP-5 | USDCAD | Sell | 0.022 | Stop | −6,603 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/2 01:01 | SP-5 | EURCHF | Sell | 0.044 | Profit | +9,476 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/5 12:01 | SP-5 | EURUSD | Buy | 0.022 | Stop | −10,693 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/15 23:01 | SP-5 | AUDUSD | Buy | 0.022 | Stop | −6,570 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 04:01 | SP-5 | CADCHF | Sell | 0.044 | Holding Period | +4,248 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 04:01 | SP-5 | GBPUSD | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | −4,169 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 04:01 | SP-5 | NZDCAD | Buy | 0.088 | Holding Period | −4,136 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 04:01 | SP-5 | NZDUSD | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | −3,960 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 06:05 | SP-A | GBPNZD | Sell | 0.08 | Holding Period | −16,602 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 07:01 | SP-A | NZDUSD | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −13,538 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 08:01 | SP-A | CADCHF | Sell | 0.08 | Holding Period | +7,358 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 09:01 | SP-A | EURCHF | Sell | 0.08 | Holding Period | +24,658 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 10:01 | SP-A | NZDCAD | Buy | 0.08 | Holding Period | −1,804 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 12:01 | SP-5 | GBPCHF | Sell | 0.044 | Holding Period | +915 |
| 9/17 04:03 | 10/16 12:01 | SP-5 | USDCHF | Sell | 0.088 | Holding Period | −9,548 |
| 9/17 21:03 | 10/5 11:01 | SP-5 | EURGBP | Sell | 0.022 | Profit | +4,356 |
| 9/23 06:05 | 10/5 11:01 | SP-5 | EURGBP | Buy | 0.022 | Stop | −4,182 |
| 9/23 07:03 | 10/5 12:01 | SP-5 | EURGBP | Sell | 0.022 | Profit | +5,103 |
| 9/24 17:03 | 10/23 17:01 | SP-5 | CADCHF | Sell | 0.044 | Holding Period | −1,935 |
| 9/24 17:03 | 10/24 01:01 | SP-5 | USDCHF | Sell | 0.11 | Holding Period | −1,208 |
| 9/24 17:03 | 10/26 10:01 | SP-A | USDCHF | Sell | 0.08 | Holding Period | +227 |
| 9/29 15:03 | 10/23 21:01 | SP-5 | EURAUD | Sell | 0.022 | Profit | +7,809 |
| 9/29 15:03 | 10/28 15:01 | SP-5 | AUDJPY | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | +2,213 |
| 9/29 15:03 | 10/28 15:01 | SP-5 | AUDUSD | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | +1,394 |
| 9/29 15:03 | 10/28 15:01 | SP-5 | GBPAUD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding Period | +924 |
| 9/30 11:03 | 10/29 11:01 | SP-5 | AUDJPY | Buy | 0.088 | Holding Period | +18,577 |
| 9/30 11:03 | 10/29 11:01 | SP-5 | GBPAUD | Sell | 0.022 | Holding Period | +2,675 |
| 10/1 17:03 | 10/30 17:01 | SP-5 | NZDCHF | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | −1,944 |
| 10/2 00:03 | 10/31 00:01 | SP-5 | AUDCHF | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | +2,505 |
| 10/2 00:03 | 10/31 00:01 | SP-5 | EURCHF | Buy | 0.022 | Holding Period | −6,366 |
| 10/2 00:03 | 10/31 00:01 | SP-5 | NZDCHF | Buy | 0.088 | Holding Period | −1,468 |
| 10/9 22:03 | 10/23 03:01 | SP-5 | USDCAD | Sell | 0.088 | Profit | +26,627 |
| 10/14 22:03 | 10/21 20:01 | SP-5 | USDCAD | Sell | 0.022 | Profit | +5,750 |
| 10/14 22:03 | 10/23 09:01 | SP-5 | USDJPY | Sell | 0.022 | Profit | +5,181 |
| 10/14 22:03 | 10/23 21:01 | SP-5 | EURCAD | Buy | 0.11 | Stop | −25,298 |
| 10/14 23:03 | 10/21 20:01 | SP-5 | USDCAD | Sell | 0.044 | Profit | +12,582 |
| 10/16 23:01 | 10/21 19:01 | RSI4 | GBPUSD | Sell | 0.42 | Holding Period | −24,910 |
| 10/19 07:00 | 10/20 07:00 | GAP | EURCAD | Buy | 1 | Holding Period | +8,100 |
| 10/22 19:01 | 10/27 15:01 | RSI4 | USDJPY | Buy | 0.42 | Holding Period | +40,236 |
All seven trades opened at 9/4 22:03 that were yen-selling (CADJPY, CHFJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY buys) were all losses. The AUDCAD sell at the same time does not involve the yen, so it is not included in this discussion.
What happened on the night of September 4
Since September, the yen had suddenly strengthened.
Earlier in September, Bank of Japan's board member Takata suggested the need to move dynamically without being constrained by the timing or width of rate hikes. It was also reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen pressed Japan to shift to a reflationary policy. The pace of BOJ rate hikes was expected to quicken, and USD/JPY fell by more than 5 yen from September 2 to September 4.
The U.S. employment report released at 21:30 on 9/4 showed non-farm payrolls up by 162,000, far exceeding expectations of 55,000. For that hour, both the yen and the dollar strengthened together, while the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar weakened against the yen.
Immediately after, at 22:03, GG_Signal issued a signal against the yen’s strength.
Compared with past 46 cases
From 2011 onward, under the same entry conditions as 9/4, there have been 46 prior occurrences before 9/4. Wins: 31; the average of the losses is +43,280 yen. The −119,040 yen on 9/4 was the fourth-largest loss among those cases.
I examined past wins and losses across various factors: price movement trends, indicator results, U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials, stock prices, VIX, and even the quantity and tone of English news. No single factor cleanly separated wins from losses.
Still, there is one aspect on 9/4 that differed from all 46 previous cases.
