【Episode 11】 Shōkinryū Real trade is moving "as per backtest" — How to verify
“Backtests show profits, but what about real trading?”
Among EA inquiries, this is one of the most common questions. It’s a valid concern. There are many products in the market thatlook great in backtests but fail to earn in real tradingbecause of that.
I, too, have been driven by such EAs in the past. That’s why Shoukinryu decided from the start to “fully disclose real trading.” Real trading cannot lie.
This time, I will explain a method for you to verify “how closely real trading matches backtests” before purchasing. Not the seller’s words, butobjective indicators you can verify with your own eyesfocused on.
First, as a general matter, here are five representative reasons why real and BT diverge.
Among these factors, the most problematic is①Over-optimizationwhere EA developers tune parameters to produce “neat results” on past data in BT. In future markets, it may fail completely.
The others ②–⑤ are inherently impossible to make perfectly match between BT and real trading.What matters is whether the BT-real gap remains within an acceptable rangewhen checking.
When comparing BT and real, only three indicators matter. If these align, you can judge that the EA is moving as BT indicates.
The difference between BT win rate and real win rate is the first indicator to check. It shows whether the EA’s logic is functioning. If an EA has BT win rate of 84% but only 70% in real trading, the logic may be flawed. If within ±5%, it’s largely fine.
PF = total profit ÷ total loss. 1.0 means break-even; 2.0 means profits are twice the losses. If BT PF is 1.93 and real PF is 1.5–2.5, it’s acceptable. If PF drops near 1.0, caution is needed.
Check that an EA with BT “yearly 22%” does not show extreme month-to-month swings in real trading, such as +30% in one month and -10% in another. See if monthly profits stay within BT’s expected range.
So, how about Shoukinryu? The table below compares real account data I fully disclosed with BT.
| Indicator | Backtest | Real trading | Judgment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 84.28% | 82–86% | ○ Pass |
| PF | 1.93 | 1.8–2.1 | ○ Pass |
| Monthly return | Average about 1.9% | 2–5% (recent high volatility) | ○ Pass |
| 最大DD | 12% | Within 10% (recent) | ○ Pass |
Win rate, PF, monthly return, and max drawdown — all major indicators are within BT’s expected ranges.In fact, recently, due to high-volatility conditions, real trading tends to surpass BT averagesat a similar pace.
This is because I designed it from the start to avoid over-optimization. Specifically, during parameter optimization, I enforced a constraint such that PF ≥ 1.5 in any three-year subset of the past 11 years, adopting values that do not rely on a specific period.
Thanks to this design philosophy, real trading figures align with BT expectations after moving to real trading.
No need to take the seller’s word at face value. You can verify with your own eyes in 3 steps:
GogoJungle’s Shoukinryu product page fully discloses the backtest reports. It lists win rate, PF, max drawdown, and number of trades, so please record the numbers yourself.
Third-party service “Real Trade Results” fully discloses my real account. Numbers are retrieved automatically from MT5 and cannot be altered.
A 24-hour live stream shows the real account MT5 screen as-is. You can verify entries, exits, and drawdown progression in real time.
Even watching for 1–2 weeks before purchase reveals the EA’s “character.”
Lastly, an important note.BT and real trading will never be 100% identical.
Spreads, slippage, order types, and broker differences. These factors will always cause a gap of a few percent to several tens of percent. If you see an EA that moves exactly as BT in real trading, that should raise data-discrepancy concerns.
An appropriate expectation is“±10–20% of BT’s projection is excellent.”Shoukinryu has recently benefited from favorable market conditions and thus exceeds BT averages, but in the long run it should converge within a few percent of BT.
- Causes for BT-real divergence: over-optimization, spreads, slippage, history quality, and execution method
- Three indicators to verify BT-aligned behavior: win rate, PF, and monthly return distribution
- Shoukinryu falls within BT ranges on all four indicators (tending to outperform in recent high-volatility conditions)
- Before purchasing, you can verify yourself via the product page BT, real-trade disclosures, and YouTube live
- BT and real do not perfectly match. Realistic judgment is to consider within ±10–20% acceptable
※This article is for information purposes and not investment solicitation. The performance results shown are past results and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risks. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
