Three consecutive weeks Scenario A hit! Weekly GOLD Special Commentary, Episode 3, March 30, 2026 (Mon) ~
Note: This article is the third weekly GOLD commentary distributed on March 29, 2026 (Sunday) for purchasers of the semi-discretionary pyramiding EA "tundere series." The target week (3/30–) has already ended, and results for the following week are confirmed in the fourth installment. The main scenario hit (3000 PIPS).
It is公開 as an example of "how to read GOLD with SMC."
tundereTo everyone using the series
In the second installment, I wrote that the biggest focus next week would be the 4,401 test. The result went far below that, passing through to over 5,000PIPS in a reversal, and the close was almost the same as the previous week.5,000PIPS—a range week with crazily little change in the closing price.
Main scenarioA1functions,TP1・TP2reached, and furthermoreC-2also activated. However, the depth below and the speed of reversal were unanticipated. This time, after dissecting this background, I will present a scenario on how to attack the twists of H4 and H1.
■Last week's recap
Result:A1activated→ TP1・reached→ C-2activated. Main target hit.
Monday:300PIPSwindow opened and started from the bottom.4,450was reached, followed by a shallow rebound to around4,536. This is the A1's "super shallow pullback" → M15 FVG cluster covering it.FVG cluster hammered the price and accelerated the downside,TP1・TP2passed, breaking through the weekly low in one stroke.4,401was confirmed and C-2 activated.
Tue–Fri:From the weekly low, a reversal of over 5,000PIPS. On Wednesday a weekly high formed, but this was atH4Fibonacci (4,099↔5,419) 0.382, where the price was capped. A pullback on Thursday, and on Friday a rally to near the previous week's level.
Important point:This reversal is better seen as a “return after the body broke” rather than a sweep in C-1. However, the lower timeframes show a different scene.H4is at4,275on a body break (structural break), while the daily merely traded by the wicks (possible sweep), and the weekly likewise shows wicks. The greater the higher the timeframe, the smaller the apparent damage.—This will be the key next week.
■Why did the crash happen and why did it reverse
【Crash】
Technical: around 4,536, M15 FVG cluster acted as a lid → heavy downmove.4,401SSL linkage activation→through the liquidity gap in one go. This matches the second installment’s note that “there is little support ahead of 4,401.”
Fundamentals: the previous week's FOMC + PPI shock reverberations.PPIupside surprise → hawkish shift → Homs crisis → inflationary concerns prolonged—
Technical: near the weekly low, the daily 200SMA loomed. Although SMC zones were on a separate axis, it is a moving average watched by traders globally, and this may have contributed to the rebound.
Fundamental factors:3
Truth Social＝Trump's social network. Open to all.
② Flash PMI(Tuesday):Manufacturing52.4(beat)employment subindex contracted for first time in over a year. GDP growth also slowed, suggesting stagflation signs and a GOLD tailwind.
③ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday):Final: 53.3(Flash 55.5)significant downward revision. 1-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.8%. A worsening economy plus rising inflation seemingly triggered Friday's rebound.
Crash:FOMCaftershock → 4,401 SSLcontinuation →through the gap zone →
Reversal: peace hopes + PMI employment deterioration + Michigan plunge→safe-haven demand→weekly high
■Next week's key economic indicators
Employment-related data arrive in quick succession (three in a row).This is likely to be the main theme moving GOLD next week.
Tuesday3/31 JOLTSJob openings (23:00).
Employment turned to contraction just after.
Miss: worsening employment trend intensifiesRate-cut expectations→
Beat: employment remains firmRate-cut expectations fading→
Wednesday4/1Retail sales (21:30) +ADP21:15/ private estimate) +ISM23:00
Thursday4/2Initial jobless claims (21:30）
The last data prior to this.
Continuing rise: employment worsens→
Decline: labor market stabilizesexpectations shift→
Friday4/3NFP (employment statistics) (21:30／US Bureau of Labor Statistics)★★★★★
News and SNS often refer to “employment statistics” as NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls). Last time the figure for February waspeople. The event next week is the biggest.
Negative trend continuesLarge downside miss: recession materializesPreponed rate cut→
Shift to positive: job market improves slightly or large upside surprisemonths were temporaryLong-term high interest continues→
⚠ Good FridayNote: 4/3 is a full closure for COMEX gold futures.NFPwill be released but the reaction will be carried over to Monday (4/6).CFDDepending on broker, limited trading may be available, but liquidity is extremely thin.Good FridayA position opened beyond this may face gaps on Monday.
■Structure3/27(Fri)NY
Weekly:Long lower wick around 4,000PIPS; body near prior week levels. At weekly level, 4,401 has recovered with a wick, suggesting limited structural damage.
Daily:CHoCHline near 4,275. Close not below, so upward structure remains formal. However, there is a real body break at H4, reducing reliability.
H4: Downward structure continues. Break above CHoCH is at 4,735.4,401below break confirmed BOS downwards continues.4,735
H4Fib (4,099 ↔ 5,419 / BOS starting point):
・0.236 = 4,411／0.382 = 4,603(≈ weekly high)0.5 = 4,759
・OTE = 4,915〜5,137
H1: Break aboveCHoCH→
H1Fib (4,099 ↔ 4,603):
・0.382 = 4,411／0.5 = 4,351／OTE = 4,207〜4,292
. According to SMC, higher timeframes have priority, so H4 down implies a selling bias, but if price moves to 4,735, there is roughly a 2,500PIPS range, allowing conditional long setups following H1.
■
Basic stance:H4down = selling bias. However, as long as the momentum upward remains in H1, conditional longs can be considered.
Long entry conditions:①Do not buy just because price reaches a zone——Look for strong reversals (impulse, FVG formation, pullbacks after rising support) before entering long.②Or wait for a zone to form a range (base). As shown by the 4,401 penetration this week, selling pressure can overwhelm support during a downtrend.
Zone confidence depends on the “route to reaching it”:The same price zone can have different reliability depending on whether the price pressed up gradually or dropped from above with a displacement (momentum). Fresh arrival tends to support resistance as a level; but sharp press can penetrate. Last week's 4,401 is a prime example of the latter, where momentum overwhelmed support.
Candle bodies shrink, no new FVG appear, cannot break recent highs — indicates a move back toward H4 CHoCH direction.
【ScenarioA: Buy on pullback——H1 upward structure forms the basis
In H1, a break above CHoCH is confirmed, so long in the direction of H1. Yet higher timeframe H4 remains downward. This is a conditional position only as long as momentum continues.
A1: Shallow pullback long——MTFRebound in cluster
Premise:The up-move from Friday remains, with a shallow pullback turning back up. Focus on3① M15 OTE——② H1OBM15OB—Two timeframes share the same lower end in an MTF cluster
If price pushes from current level, it can be fresh support. But if price first moves up into B1/B2, hits resistance then falls, a down-structure forms, so expect a path through A1 and toward a split (4,360〜4,380) or direct to A2.
①Arrive at one of the zones above
② M15/M5Confirm an up impulse (bullish engulfing, CHoCH, rebound with support FVG formation)
③Merely touching the zone is not enough — wait for rebound momentum
SL:Below the most recent swing low after entry on M15/M5
TP1:Recent high/low of the pullback
TP2:MTF cluster band (4,403〜4,426 support OB)
TP3:Weekly high’s BSL — buy stops accumulated above the previous week’s high (4,603). Potential to be cleaned out and reversed.
Beyond weekly high, there are H1 resistance FVG (4,740〜4,748) ahead. If the rise from A1 continues, this H1 resistance FVG could be swept and reversed. In that case, align with B2’s sell zone and consider taking profits on longs and switching to shorts.
MTFcluster (4,403) breached below body → fork in direction
Split point:4,360〜4,380
A1breaks; next focus is this band.OB(upper end 4,380) andSupportOB(upper end 4,379) nearly coincide at the same upper endcluster.a rebound could lead to another attempt toward the A1 direction.
A2：Deep pullback long——H4SupportOBrebound
Premise:A1MTFcluster and split (4,360〜4,380) both break,H4Support(4,306〜4,379) price pushes toward lower end. Along the way,M15Supportcluster (4,359〜4,391) tightens, but breaking the split indicates M15-level support may fail.H4Supportlower end near 4,306 is the main rebound point.
① H4SupportOBlower end (4,306 area) reaches
② M15/M5look for impulsive rebound (support FVG formation, breakout on lower TF CHoCH, etc.)
③If depth is this deep, downwards momentum is strong. Wait safely for M15 CHoCH.
SL:Below the H4 OB lower end (4,306).
TP1：Recent high/low of the pullback in M15
TP2：MTF cluster band (4,403〜4,426 support OB cluster)
TP3：Weekly high’s SSL— a buying stop above last week’s high (4,603). A buildup of buy orders may be cleared here and price reverse.
H4SupportOBlower end (4,306) breached on a body break→Move to a fork in direction
【ScenarioB: Upward selling——H4downward structure as basis
H4Remains in downward structure. At the point where upward momentum slows, short in the direction of H4.
B1: M15 resistanceOBband (4,545〜4,613) sales
Premise:Near the Friday high (4,555) re-approach M15 resistance OB band; convergence with M15 resistance OB band (4,545〜4,569) and M15 resistance OB (4,583〜4,613) forming a thick resistance belt. Friday closed near the top and this zone could function again.
Entry conditions：
① M15① M15ResistanceResistance OB band (4,545〜4,613) reachedOBband (4,545〜4,613) reached
② M15/M5② M15/M5Downward signals (upper wicks, lower highs, clear rejection at Resistance OB)Down signals (long wicks, higher highs broken, clear rejection at resistance OB)
③③ LONDON KZ Judas Swing watchLondon KZ Judas Swing (Tokyo range breakout → reversal drop) also watched
SLSL：：After entry, use swing highs formed on M15/M5 as the stop level. Not a fixed price; evaluate the structure's rejection as a standard.After entry, use swing highs formed on M15/M5 as the stop level. Not fixed price; base on structure negation.
TP1TP1：：Recent M15 lowRecent high/low on M15
TP2TP2：：MTFMTFCluster band (4,403〜4,426 support OB cluster)Cluster band (4,403〜4,426 support OB cluster)
TP3TP3：：FibH1Fib 0.5 (4,351) near0.5(4,351) nearby SSL
Weekly high (4,603) breached on a body; move to B2 and wait4,735 is breached on a body above; H4 is turning up. All sell scenarios withdrawn.
B2：H4ResistanceOB★
Premise：Price surpasses weekly high, breaks above H4 CHoCH (4,735) near end; H4 resistance OB band (4,670〜4,735) aligns. This zone is CHoCH H4 zone itself and next week’s strongest resistance. Just above there is H4 resistance FVG (4,719〜4,827). It may sweep OB and reverse. With Trump’s statements moving the market by over 5,000PIPS in one day, even if the current price is about 2,000PIPS away, there is a good chance to reach it.
【ScenarioC：H4SupportOBcollapsetoward weekly low
Premise：H4SupportOBlower end breach (4,306)H4major support collapses,H1
TP1：SupportOB(4,148〜4,165)
TP2：
TP3：
If weekly low is re-tested and holds, a double bottom possibility arises.breached on body means daily CHoCH (4,275 close) already passed, confirming daily structural collapse.
Upper: 4,735 (H4 CHoCH), Lower: 4,306 (H4 Support OB lower end). This range is the main battlefield. Additionally, the MT F cluster 4,360〜4,380 will decide between A1 and A2.
Pattern awareness.
■ nao’s assessment
This week’s scenarios branch so widely mainly due to the H4 downward x H1 upward twist. Upper TF (H4) bearish, lower TF (H1) bullish — mismatched directions force us to prepare both pullback buy and rebound sell scenarios. Until this twist resolves, leaning toward one side alone is risky.
What I want to emphasize most is that “the route to reaching determines everything.” The same zone’s reliability changes depending on how price arrived. Last week’s 4,401 break was exactly that example.
Also focus on the 4,360〜4,380 split zone.
And of courseNFP×Good FridayCOMEXNFP
この記事で書いているシナリオは、私がSMCの構造分析とファンダを組み合わせて組み立てたものです。来週、全く違う展開になる可能性は普通にあります。だからこそ大事なのは、このシナリオをそのまま使うことではなく、「なぜこの条件分岐になるのか」「自分ならどう組むか」を考えながら読むことです。そして実際に自分でもシナリオを作ってみてください。最初はうまくいかなくて当たり前です。私もそうでした。毎日毎週繰り返すことで、自分の型ができてきますので是非実践してみてくださいね。
【免責事項】
■ About the continuation of this explanation (from Part 4 onwards)
This weekly GOLD commentary is distributed every weekend.
You can read it before the week starts.
Part 4 (target week: 4/6–) will cover —
・Answer to Part 3 scenarios
・Next week’s practical entry scenarios
・Fundamental decomposition
・Detailed MT F structural整理
and more
—— already distributed.
■ SMC Course (Investment Navigator+)
From Part 0 (What FX and SMC are) to Part 8 (Practice in Scenario Creation) is公開. The terms and concepts used in this weekly analysis are all explained within the course.
▶ SMC Course (Investment Navigator+) First issue
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/111684?via=navi_search
■ About tundere Series
Nao-style semi-discretionary pyramiding EA. When a trader decides the direction and places market orders, the EA automatically manages limit orders, small-profit exits, trailing cuts, and protection of favorable positions. The work is divided as “direction by trader, management by EA.”
This weekly analysis is written to strengthen decisions on “where, why, and how to enter” within the tundere series. Understanding where the line between what the EA handles and what you decide yourself maximizes the use of this EA.
▶ Purchaser perks
・SMC explanatory videos・TradingView SMC composite indicator
・Online community access
・Weekly GOLD special commentary (distributed every weekend)
・SMC basic course
・Permanent free upgrades
▶ Details on tundere【R】 here
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/71019?via=toppage_recentViewed
