All-nighter required! Evening in Europe, focus on the UK at night! ~Key points and event schedule for March 27~

Yesterday, with a big event on the horizon, the mood remains cautious as investors wait and see. The stock market, following a sharp plunge the day before yesterday, appears to be undergoing a correction globally as stocks rise worldwide.

◎ Today's Focus

1) Euro area indicators and statements by important figures

Last weekend, Germany's PMI came out with surprising figures, causing the euro to weaken significantly. Worsening German economic indicators are raising concerns about a recession in the European economy.

Despite finishing QE last December, the ECB announced in the March policy meeting a policy measure that could be considered easing—TLTRO. How much does the ECB forecast a recession? What will be the response going forward? Attention is high.

In the midst of this, today there are many speeches from ECB officials starting with President Draghi. If they touch on the issues mentioned above, the market could move significantly. This is worth watching.

2) United Kingdom Parliament

At the UK Parliament on the 25th, it was decided that the withdrawal bill discussion would move from government (Prime Minister May) leadership to Parliament leadership. Many reports suggest that today Parliament will debate and vote on amendments or alternative proposals to the withdrawal bill. Other proposals could include a second referendum or a no-deal Brexit or a long delay, making it hard to predict what will come next.

There is also information that the withdrawal bill will be voted on on the 28th. There are rumors that MPs will vote in favor if Prime Minister May resigns. Conversely, rumors say May will not put the bill to a vote if it seems certain to fail.

I expect decisions on this matter to come out in today’s Parliament session as well.

Brexit moving under Parliament's leadership has become unpredictable. Because of the high attention, the pound is expected to experience volatile moves. Watch closely.

In terms of timing, I think we’ll enter a danger zone and focus zone around 24:00 Japan time. I will tweet as each development occurs.

Please also follow me on Twitter.

3) New Zealand Policy Rate

Today, the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will release the policy rate and statement.

The consensus is for no change. The focus is on the statement.

Although many central banks globally are shifting to a dovish stance, there is keen interest in whether the RBNZ will shift dovish as well. Given that the RBA has shown a dovish stance, there is speculation that the RBNZ may also shift dovish.

Additionally, I expect the statement to indicate what to look at going forward, outlining key focus areas.

◎ Today's Economic Calendar

Wednesday, March 27

08:00 AUDKent RBA Deputy Governor Speech

10:00 NZDRBNZ Policy Rate and Statement Release

16:00 NOK Norway Unemployment Rate

17:00 EURSpain HICP (Consumer Price Index)

17:00 EURDraghi ECB President Speech

17:00 EUR Novakotony? (Note: likely Novakovic) - Austrian National Bank President Speech

17:30 EUR Visco Italian Central Bank President Speech

17:45 EURPlos ECB Executive Director Speech

19:00 EURLautenShleger ECB Executive Director Speech

19:45 EURDégantès ECB Deputy President Speech

21:30 USD U.S. Trade Balance

21:30 CAD Canada Trade Balance

22:30 EURMulder ECB Executive Director Speech

23:00 MXN Mexico Trade Balance

23:30 USD Crude Oil Stocks

Thursday, March 28

02:00 USD 5-year Bond Auction

02:30 EUR Bilroa France Central Bank President Speech

06:30 USDGeorge of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Speech

09:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence