Europe Summit Day 2! Compiled information on Brexit!

EU Summit has entered its second day. The information is becoming tangled and it is unclear. From several perspectives, I have summarized it.

◎ About the proposal to extend the Brexit deadline

・April 12 – Participation deadline for the European Parliament elections

The EU side wants to know clearly whether the UK will participate in the European Parliament elections. Therefore, there were reports that as long as the candidate deadline on April 12 is met, the extension of Brexit could be allowed. However, since this would be added to the conditions for extending the Brexit deadline, I think the likelihood is low.

・May 07 – Brexit deadline extension proposal (1)

If the extension is being granted to vote on the Brexit proposal, final negotiations with the EU on the Brexit proposal decided in the UK are necessary. Therefore, an extraordinary EU summit will be held before the European Parliament elections. The extraordinary EU summit is planned for May 9, and it seems the extension proposal is being presented two days before that. I think this proposal has a relatively high possibility.

・May 22 – Brexit deadline extension proposal (2)

Since the European Parliament elections are on May 23, most reports propose extending the Brexit deadline by May 22, the day before. This is the most common scenario.

・Extension within the year

There are opinions that a short-term extension is not meaningful unless it is long-term. This proposal has two variants. Since a short-term extension cannot decide anything, one variant is to extend long-term from the start and have the UK participate in the European Parliament elections; the other is that if the third Brexit proposal vote by March 29 is held and rejected, then extend the deadline within the year. However, in both cases, because many countries oppose a long-term extension, the likelihood seems low.

・Two-year extension

This also has the same content as the year-long extension above.

◎ About the conditions for extending the Brexit deadline

・Voting on Prime Minister May's third Brexit proposal

There is an opinion that a postponement would be allowed if it is to re-vote on Prime Minister May's Brexit proposal.

・Approval of Prime Minister May's third Brexit proposal

If May's Brexit proposal is approved by the UK Parliament and the UK Parliament shows a united stance, a postponement would be allowed.

・Participation in the European Parliament elections

If a long-term Brexit deadline extension is to be made, participation in the European Parliament elections would be a prerequisite.

・Second referendum

There is an opinion to hold a second referendum, or to permit a deadline extension to enable a second referendum.

◎ Others

・No-deal Brexit

Many EU member states believe that even if the UK is granted a long-term extension, nothing will be decided as before, so only a short-term extension can be allowed. Moreover, the conditions for a short-term extension are as described above. If a short-term extension is not allowed, a no-deal Brexit is likely. This possibility seems high.

・Second referendum

Prime Minister May continues to deny it, but there is a possibility that a second referendum could be part of the Brexit extension conditions. The referendum options include a two-option choice of “Brexit or Remain” or a three-option choice of “Brexit or Remain or May’s Brexit proposal.” However, I think the likelihood of a referendum is low.

・Reversal of Brexit (Reversal of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty)

In the UK, there is a system where citizens can submit petitions on the government website. If a petition gathers 100,000 signatures, it will be debated in Parliament. A petition to reverse Brexit (repeal of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty) has already gathered 1 million signatures.

Is 1 million signatures enough to bring it to parliamentary debate?!

When will it be debated?!

With 1 million signatures, what will be done about the public opinion that favors remaining in the EU?!

Such information is emerging. Also, the EU side is believed to have this information, which could influence negotiations after today.