U.S. Employment Statistics, Government Shutdown Impact?! – Highlights and Schedule for February 1
At the recent FOMC, the dollar-yen declined. It broke below 109 and upside momentum is weak. Also, as of yesterday, the euro collapsed ahead of the London fix. With neither the dollar nor the euro attractive, commodity currencies have been bought.
After the FOMC, the dollar has moved toward the US employment statistics.
◎ Today's Points of Focus
1) US Employment Report
Recent US employment data has seemed to attract less attention and have less impact. However, due to the government shutdown, there are concerns about a downside surprise, while the ADP employment data showed a solid result. This morning's NFP employment data is under heightened scrutiny to see whether it will be dragged down by the shutdown or will show a positive result as seen in ADP.
2) US-China Relations
The two days of US-China trade talks concluded with no major breakthrough and no change in tariffs appears to be likely.
In this round of talks, it did not seem to improve US-China relations. However, the result was a victory for the US in increasing soybean exports.
There was no discussion about the previously anticipated Huawei CFO issue, and relations did not improve. Caution remains for US-China relations going forward.
3) European Economy
Yesterday, the euro fell sharply, weighed down by signs of European economic slowdown. Italy's GDP released yesterday showed two consecutive quarters of negative growth (recession).
Another factor behind the euro's decline was comments from Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann about the economy.
“The 2020 and 2021 growth outlook as of December remains realistic”
“Germany's 2019 growth will be below its potential growth rate”
With the euro area economy in a downturn, Italy's recession, the Germany economy's downside, the economic impact of France's protests, and euro selling at the month-end London fix all contributing factors, the euro fell further.
Today, PMI, a leading economic indicator, will be released for several European countries. If the downside continues, another round of euro selling could occur, drawing attention.
◎ Today's Economic Event Schedule
February 1 (Friday)
10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI
16:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI
17:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI
17:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
17:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
18:30 GBPManufacturing PMI
19:00 EUR Euro Area HICP (Consumer Price Index)
22:30 USDNon-farm Payrolls等・Unemployment Rate・Average Hourly Earnings
February 2 (Saturday)
00:00 USDISM Manufacturing Index
00:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
03:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
