Today, Employment Statistics Ghibli Night! ~ Highlights for April 5 and Event Schedule ~
Yesterday, due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the pound weakened throughout the day.
Moreover, Italy downgraded its economic outlook, which keeps the euro under pressure. Europe, with concerns about a recession in Italy, as well as Germany and France, has seen hints from a senior official of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) that help for Turkey may be forthcoming. As a result, the Turkish lira has seen some intraday rebound.
◎ Today’s Points of Focus
1) UK Parliament & Brexit
In the UK Parliament, bills related to Brexit, alternatives, and amendments are being debated and voted on. Yesterday, another request to extend the withdrawal deadline was approved. However, the extension requires approval from the EU, so the outcome will be decided at the emergency EU summit on the 10th.
Alongside parliamentary deliberations, Prime Minister May is meeting with opposition Labour Party leader Corbyn to seek cooperation and discuss possible compromises. There are mixed opinions on cross-party cooperation, but it seems both sides are trying to find a compromise. The talks are in their third day today, and progress is being made, but it is unclear whether an agreement can be reached. It is uncertain when the exact terms will be announced. I will be paying attention to the headlines.
2) US & Canada Employment Data
Today is the jobs report.
In the US, given last month’s extremely weak employment figures, attention is on how much revision will be made, how this month’s employment will fare, and what the average wage will be. The ADP employment data released earlier beat expectations to the downside. Yesterday, the USD/JPY rose to around 111.70 on progress in US-China trade talks. If today’s jobs data show strong results, there may be a test of the year-to-date high in the low 112s.
Canada’s employment data are also in focus. Last week, Canada’s GDP showed strong results. Crude oil prices remain high and stable. With the Canadian dollar strengthening again, strong payroll data today could lead to further upside. Given yesterday’s strong Ivey PMI, I have entered CAD/JPY long at 83.50. I plan to decide on full participation after reviewing today’s employment data.
3) Other Risks
In addition to Brexit, there are still lurking risks as markets calm. US-China trade talks appear to be progressing, but like the last-minute reversals during the US-North Korea summit, President Trump may change course at the last moment. Intellectual property remains a sticking point in US-China relations.
Next, Turkey. The Turkish lira’s sharply spiking swap rates have begun to settle a bit, but this cooling also opens up selling strategies. At some point, there could be a sudden onslaught of selling—another Turkish shock might occur. Exercise caution when dealing with the Turkish lira.
Yesterday, Italy’s economic outlook was revised downward. European economies are wary of a recession. China is also of concern. The world is highly sensitive to economic downturns. When officials’ remarks or coincident data signal a recession, risk-off tends to dominate. Be especially careful with major European countries (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, etc.), China, and Oceania.
4) Studio Ghibli Night
Today, the Studio Ghibli film "Pom Poko" will be broadcast. Will the Ghibli rule, the Ghibli curse, or chaos appear? It’s more of an urban legend, so whether it’s true or not remains uncertain... (´艸｀)
◎ Today’s Event Schedule
Friday, April 5
15:45 EUR France Trade Balance
16:30 GBP Halifax House Price Index
21:30 USDNFP Employment / Unemployment Rate /Average Hourly Earnings
21:30 CADEmployment Change / Unemployment Rate
Saturday, April 6
02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count
04:00 USD Consumer Credit
04:30 USD Boostastic Atlanta Fed President Speech
Sunday, April 7
Australia & New Zealand: Summer Time ends, standard time resumes
Japan Unified Local Elections
◎ Announcements
Today, I was invited to the employment statistics live on the investment information site "Gogo-ジャン" (GogoJan).
【April 5 (Fri) 20:30~】 GogoJan TV
Ultra-practical Employment Statistics Live!
【出演者 (Cast)】
MC: YEN Zō (Tashiro Takeshi)
Assistant: Emily
Guest: Warrior from Abroad
Guest: Okachan-man
Special Guest: President Tsurusha
【Sponsor】
FX Trade Financial Co., Ltd. (FXTF)https://t.co/cHAblmqFqM#fx
If you can, please come and watch!
