Eliminate discretion and back it up with statistics. Rule-based trading that does not require environmental awareness
Eliminate discretion and back it with statistics.
Rule-based trading that does not require market awareness
In trading, a commonly discussed topic is “market awareness.”
Todaywhether it looks like it will rise or be a range-bound market──Many people try to read the future of the market.
However, when judgment becomes uncertain,unnecessary entries and losses tend to increaseas well.
What I value is the idea of“not doing market awareness yourself, but entrusting it to rules or an EA”.
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1. What is statistically proven is the “small losses, big gains” structure
The expected value of a trade is
Win rate × average profit − loss rate × average loss
determined.
Even with a 40% win rate, if the average profit is more than twice the average loss, it is positive.
In other words,“even if you don’t hit market awareness, as long as you strictly pursue small losses and big gains, you can profit” is mathematically proven.
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2. However, not万能
Here, do not misunderstand: “small losses, big gains guarantees winning” does not meanyou will always win..
• Depending on the instrument and time frame, a range may persist and stop-losses may increase
• Spreads and fees erode the expected value
• Backtests may be positive, but live trading can have slippage
Results vary depending on the environment.
“Statistically advantageous” = not “can win anywhere at any time”n.
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3. Drawdown is inevitable
With a 40% win-rate strategy, five losses in a row or ten in a row happen statistically.
In actual backtests, drawdown periods lasting weeks to months exist.
The important thing is not to break the rules by mixing discretion during that period.
If you prioritize your own judgment by saying “I don’t want to lose any more,” you lose the edge of the rules.
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4. Quantify and rule-ify market awareness
Rather than completely abandoning market awareness,transform it into a form that does not rely on forecasts.
• Define direction with moving averages
• Eliminate the trade discretion of “looks like rising / looks like falling”
• Quantify trend strength with ATR or ADX
Decide the rules in advance.
This brings us closer to a system where you “compete in any market with the same rules.”.
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Summary
Through accumulation, rule-based trading that does not rely on market awareness is honed
There is no need to rely on other people’s predictions; believe in the rules and be thorough.
That, I believe, is the fastest path to profits in any market condition.
Trade without market awareness and follow the rules.
It may seem overly simple, but if you follow the statistically backed “small losses, big gains” system, you can steadily accumulate profits in the long run.
In the future as well, we will share actual verification results and improvements on Investment Navigator+; I would be glad if you find it helpful.
For those who often hesitation in trading.
“The Sky’s Interstice” is a simple strategy where entries are automated and exits are determined by rules.
First, read the free material
Please take a look.
The overall outline of the rules and thinking should become somewhat graspable.
We introduce, with diagrams, when and why certain judgments are made.
Even with simple rules,understanding the structure makes “reproducible judgments” possible for anyone.
If you want to have a clear “judgment standard” inside you, please start here.
Sky’s Interstice main text here
Why publish negative results?
Investment Navigator+ intentionallydiscloses negative results without hiding them.
The reason is that “trading is not always winning.”
Rather,recording losses allows analysis of “what conditions lead to losses,” making the logic more robust.
Rather than clinging to each win or loss,
over a span of a week or a month, achieving a total profit is most important“total balance is positive”.
• “I’m happy I won today”
• “I’m anxious because I lost today”
To eliminate these emotional swings, let the EA handle entries and have humans focus on “exiting according to the rules.”
Not “I want to win,” but “I want to earn” —this mindset is the foundation for long-term profit.
Stability gained by following the rules
The common trait of those who lose a lot in trading is“desire to win”driving rule-breaking
• Entries fully automated by EA
• Exits governed by fixed, rule-based conditions
Thus,human intervention is minimized to the extreme, eliminating hesitation.
By mechanically following the rules, win rate and risk-reward stabilize naturally.
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We validated using the “maximum take-profit type” rule aiming at Sky’s Interstice;
there are times when break-even exits occur, but by sticking to the rules you can calmly seize the next opportunity.
Even in moments where you think “I could have taken more,”
because you exited at break-even according to the rules, you ultimately maintain an overall positive result.
What matters in trading is “win rate” rather than “reproducibility”
Many traders worry about “win rate,” but
with a win rate of 50% and good risk-reward, your capital can still grow.
What matters is having a rule with true “reproducibility” where results are the same regardless of who uses it.
Sky’s Interstice is
•EA entry → mechanical stop-loss → rule-based take profit
focusing on making trading a “business.”
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Strategy aiming for overall profit
Focusing on daily wins and losses is dangerous.
For example, viewed on a weekly or monthly basis,even with some negative days, as long as the total is positive, it’s OK.
EA has no emotions, making it ideal for long-term capital management as well.
Running the rules with the vision of “earning” rather than “winning” helps the capital curve stay stable.
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Currently, for those who purchase Sky’s Interstice, we provide auxiliary tools (automatic entry + stop-loss processing) as a bonus.
This was created from the desire that users themselves would want to use it daily,
and it is designed to delegate breakouts and risk management in line with market structure.
For those who believe take-profit should remain their own decision, this tool is well-suited.
There aren’t many reviews yet, perhaps because the structure is simple and clear enough before or after purchase to avoid much interaction.
However, as more users come on board, a paid model may be considered.
This is because there is a possibility that it will require “support and set” together with the tool rather than selling the tool alone.
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◻️ For those who want automated entry by EA
The tool that converts this logic into an EA is distributed as a purchase perk.
If you are considering purchasing, please feel free to contact us.
Sky’s Interstice Entry EA here
If you are interested in Sky’s Interstice, you can join the online community
Join the online community here
Specific trade logic cannot be explained inside the online community, but
you can participate in a “chart critique community” using Sky’s Interstice.
• If you send a chart image you’re curious about,
“What would have been the right judgment in this situation?”
“Where were the entry and take-profit points?”,we will provide feedback with rule-based judgment examples.
•Past charts for specific time ranges are OK.
We will respond in order as time allows.
To you who have become interested in Sky’s Interstice
In short-term trading, the foundation to “judge by rules without hesitation”
That is the fundamental philosophy of Sky’s Interstice.
“Can I enter this chart?”
When you hesitate,I hope this helps you shift to thinking “judge by rules, not by intuition.”
