Canada’s Key Indicator, CPI (Consumer Price Index) 발표! ~ January 18 Canadian Dollar Buy Strategy ~

The Canadian dollar, alongside the U.S. dollar, is a currency with expectations for interest rate hikes. The key indicator that will determine whether the Bank of Canada moves to raise rates is the CPI (Consumer Price Index).

◎ Strategy

・CAD buying

CAD/JPY Buy Strategy

CAD/JPY Daily Chart

 CAD/JPY Intraday Chart

I hold a long position at 81.80 yen in CAD/JPY.

Today is the release of Canada’s CPI (Consumer Price Index). Depending on the results, I am considering adding positions.

Forecast: MoM -0.4%, YoY +1.7%. The focus is on whether the YoY figure exceeds 1.7%.

If YoY exceeds 2.0%, I will immediately buy Canadian dollars.

If YoY is between 1.5% and 2.0%, I would like to buy CAD when it has fallen to the lower bound of the intraday chart’s parallel channel.

◎ Outlook

Today, Canada’s CPI is scheduled to be released. CPI is one of the indicators the Bank of Canada considers important. The central bank’s objective (duty) is to stabilize prices. When prices approach 2%, rate hikes become more likely. Below are the past CPI YoY results.

◎ WTI Crude Oil Price

Canada’s main industry is crude oil. Not only prices, but stability in the main industry, crude oil, is important. A comfortable level for WTI crude oil is around $50–60. In that sense, oil prices were too low up until last month. Currently around $53. If it stays stable, it would be easier for the Bank of Canada to move toward rate hikes.

WTI Crude Oil Price Monthly Chart