Will the Brexit deal vote really be held in the British Parliament today? ～Notable points and event schedule for January 15～
Yesterday, with the Brexit bill vote in the UK Parliament just ahead today, overall activity was subdued. Tokyo markets are closed. Earnings announcements have begun in the United States. The three major stock indices are trading lower. Soft start is expected in the Tokyo market after the holiday.
◎ Today's Points of Focus
1) Brexit Bill Vote in the UK Parliament
From 4:00 JST on the 16th, a vote will be held in the UK Parliament to approve the Brexit bill from the EU. The key is the vote total. If the result is close, it could be positive, but a large negative tilt could provoke a negative reaction.
Moreover, a rejection is becoming a consensus. Attention is shifting to the movements after a rejection. If the result is decisively negative, Prime Minister May could be held responsible, and resignation or a vote of no confidence may be expected.
The vote outcome is likely to emerge during the least liquid time of the day. If that happens, prices could move sharply, jump, or the rate may fail to display, resembling a flash crash. Some securities and FX firms are adjusting margin requirements. Position adjustments and funds management should be handled with great care.
I would like to summarize the forecast and results of the vote and the subsequent movements in a separate piece.
2) U.S. Corporate Earnings
From yesterday, U.S. corporate earnings have begun in earnest. These earnings reports come as concerns about the impact of the U.S.-China tariff and trade war on the economy persist. If poor results are announced, reactions could be hypersensitive. A decline in U.S. stocks would contribute to a risk-off sentiment. This is something to watch closely.
◎ Today's Economic Calendar
January 15 (Tuesday)
UK Parliament – Brexit Bill Vote
16:00 TRY Turkish unemployment rate
16:45 EUR France HICP (consumer price index)
17:00 EUR Spain HICP (consumer price index)
19:00 EUR Euro Area Trade Balance
21:00 USDJPMorgan Chase Earnings
22:00 USDWells Fargo Earnings
22:30 USD PPI (Producer Price Index)
January 16 (Wednesday)
00:00 EURDraghi ECB President Speech
01:30 USD Kashkari - Minneapolis Fed President Speech
03:00 USD George - Kansas City Fed President Speech
04:00 GBPUK Parliament – Brexit Bill Vote Starts
08:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
◎ Weekly Schedule
