Starting in 2019! Pay close attention to the leading indicators and the manufacturing PMI! ~ Highlights and schedule for January 2 ~
On year-end the 31st, there was a broad decline in the dollar, with USD/JPY dropping below 110 to around 109.60. The U.S. Dollar Index fell below 96 for the first time in about two months. Today, the 2nd is a holiday in Japan, but trading has begun worldwide. Trading volumes are also starting to pick up. A new year begins today. This day will be used to forecast the year’s trend.
◎ Today's Points of Focus
1) Movements of various indices
・Crude oil price: It has stopped falling around the $45 level, but can it turn upward? Can it reclaim the psychologically important $50 level?
・Gold price: Will the rise in risk-off asset gold pause?
・VIX index: The volatility and market anxiety index has fallen from the 30s to around the mid-20s. Can it fall below the key level of 20?
・Dollar Index: An index measuring the level of the U.S. dollar. After rising toward the 98 area in December last year, it began to fall and has dropped below 96. That means the dollar has weakened. Will the drop in the Dollar Index pause or accelerate?
All indices are recorded in the Record Room. Please refer to them.
2) Trump Statements
End-of-year talks between the U.S. and China by phone; President Trump posted a positive statement on Twitter. This morning he commented on North Korea (Chairman Kim). Trump’s statements can drive both risk-on and risk-off sentiments. This tends to be especially evident when market participants are sparse.
We will pay attention to Twitter and his statements.
3) Economic Indicators
Today, mainly in Europe, manufacturing PMI will be released. PMI is a leading index for future economic activity. Among them, manufacturing PMI is of particular interest. It will be watched to see how much China is feeling the impact of the U.S.–China trade war, Italy and France where fiscal issues are highlighted, Britain's economy with Brexit approaching, and the United States where recession concerns and the end of rate hikes persist. These areas are of focus.
◎ Today's Event Schedule
1/2 (Wednesday)
New Zealand, Switzerland, and Russia are closed for holidays
06:30 AUD Manufacturing PMI
10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI
16:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI
17:00 NOK Norway Manufacturing PMI
17:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI
17:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
17:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
18:00 EUR Euro-area Manufacturing PMI
18:30 GBPManufacturing PMI
23:45 USD Manufacturing PMI
For the weekly schedule and points of focus, please see below
