Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [May 20]
Bitcoin has risen further from the 103,000-dollar level last week and is currently around 107,000 dollars (about 15.2 million yen).
It is attempting to reach the high price level seen at the end of last year.
From the January high to around 75,000 dollars in April, it fell, then rose again to the high price level. I get the impression that Bitcoin is more solid and tends to rise more easily than other coins.
Even as Bitcoin has reached the all-time high level, other currencies have not yet reached that level. If Bitcoin continues to rise, and other coins rise as well, there is a possibility that Bitcoin could set a new all-time high again this year.
There are words that you should just invest in Bitcoin alone, but the cryptocurrency market does not move only with Bitcoin. While it may be true as a store of value, transactions on the blockchain are huge and practical in ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana.
From that broader perspective, I invest in a diversified way. (Although socially there are views that emphasize Bitcoin due to fiscal and inflation concerns.)
◯ Old ETH found. — Aside
When I checked an old wallet with zero balance on a site called debank, it turned out that in 2017 I had put 2.6 ETH into the distributed exchange EtherDelta. At the time, it was about 13,000 yen, but now its value is about 940,000 yen.
I checked how to retrieve it using AI and the web, and I was able to connect the wallet to Etherscan, the Ethereum transaction history site, and retrieve it directly.
At the time it was a small amount, so I might not have thought much if I couldn’t retrieve it. However, now it is a considerable sum. I happened to confirm the profit this time, and I felt lucky to have found it.
The increase in this asset amount is the charm of long-term investing.
◯ Ethereum will eventually catch up to the market — CoinDesk
The Ethereum blockchain recently completed the most important upgrade in over a year, but that milestone came after hardship. The native asset Ethereum (ETH) price fell, developers migrated to competing blockchains, and the Ethereum Foundation faced criticism for lacking leadership and vision.
“Ethereum, as a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) chain, has more than 120 Layer-2 (L2) networks, and the network's throughput reaches 300 million to 450 million transactions per day,” Brodie notes. Furthermore, “L2 transaction fees have been under one cent in the past three months.”
L2 networks such as Optimism, Arbitrum, and Coinbase’s Base have lowered user fees (fees have been considered a major hurdle hindering broad adoption). Yet at the same time, they bring new security risks and fragmentation challenges, which some say threaten Ethereum’s fundamental value proposition.
“The world will continue to learn about this technology and system. The world will demand real value propositions, even if a little more complex. I believe that moment is just beginning. Therefore, I think the market will eventually value it fairly. Ethereum is the most important project in crypto assets, and that has not changed.”
------
Ethereum’s performance had been weak for several years, but it rose sharply about two weeks ago and continued to surge yesterday. Ethereum and Ethereum-related assets (L2) are also performing well (though there are sizable declines as well).
Could this be a sign of something?
Indeed, while Bitcoin is currently attracting attention as a store of value, Ethereum ecosystem—utilizing blockchain for practical transactions—drives the market.
In that sense, as blockchain is more widely adopted, Ethereum’s value is more likely to come to the forefront.
Previously, Elon Musk’s moves to reduce costs and improve transparency through blockchain-based government transactions can be seen as part of that trend.
◯ In the Japanese government bond market, interest rates are surging, and the yield curve is steepening rapidly. In particular, the rapid rise in ultra-long-term yields could change investors’ behavior away from low-yielding bonds and impact Japan’s monetary and fiscal policy. (Bloomberg)
------
The long era of ultra-low interest rates in Japan may be ending. As government bond yields rise, investors may move away from bonds to other assets, spurred by inflation concerns.
I feel that rising interest rates could presage greater hardship in people’s lives.
※Paid-subscription sections go into more in-depth stock analysis. I want to go beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum and incorporate more investments. If you want to understand future trends in the cryptocurrency market and ride that wave, please consider subscribing. Continuous research is very important.
(This article has been distributed since 2016)
× ![]()
