A global Black Monday caused by U.S. tariffs occurred on April 7.

Before the 7th, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin seemed to withstand declines in stocks, but after the 7th they plunged all at once. They fell from $84,000 to breach $80,000, and on the 8th temporarily dropped below $76,000, and since then have been hovering around $78,000 after a rebound.

Currently (the 9th), the Bitcoin fear index is 24

Regarding the new tariff, a 10% tax will be imposed on all imported goods, and tariffs exceeding 20% are also set to apply to China andEU, it has been announced.

Below is the general trend of the fear index

Investors are trembling in fear, distressed

VIXindex (fear index) has40surpassed, plunging into a panic state.

Actual value40and above is the corona shock’s first time in5years

As stocks fall, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may also decline, testing the mettle of investors who buy while experiencing unrealized losses. — Crypto Boy (April 5)

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Fear IndexVIXmay surge dramatically on a monthly basis approaching the Lehman Shock

Lehman Shock monthly high:59

Current:57

ーーーー April 7

From a personal perspective, when looking at a cryptocurrency portfolio during such declines, in recent years XRP (Ripple) price would be under 20 yen, but now it is around 300 yen, showing considerable strength compared to before.XRPRipple’s pricewas under 20 yen, but now is close to 300 yen, showing notable strength compared to before.

One currency that was greatly affected by Trump’s inauguration isXRP, indeed.

This decline can be considered a crash close to the corona shock, but many didn’t rush to buy at that time. Many others seemed to anticipate an even larger crash.

◯ Arthur Hayes

U.S. Treasuries and, to a lesser extent, U.S. stocks have been used as global reserve assets. Since Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard in1971, U.S. outstanding debt has increased by85times. The U.S. needed to create credit dollars for world economic growth. This was good for some Americans but bad for others. Trump was elected, on average, by people who feel they have not participated in the past50years of U.S. “prosperity.”

If the U.S. current account deficit is resolved, foreigners will no longer hold dollars to buy bonds or stocks. If foreigners must stimulate their own economies, they will sell the U.S. Treasuries and stocks they hold to fund their “America First” policies, and even if Trump were to retract tariff harshness, no treasury secretary or world leader would take the risk of assuming that Trump might change his mind again, so the situation will not return to how it was. They must do what is best for their own country.

Return::

Gold is a neutral safe asset. The dollar remains a reserve currency, but countries will hold gold as reserves to settle world trade. Trump suggested this, noting that gold is exempt from tariffs. In the new world monetary order, gold must circulate freely and cheaply.

Many who have been fortunate are in denial and cling to the fantasy that things will “normalize.” It’s nonsense.

1971> Those who want to adapt to the reversion to trade relations before 1971 should buy gold, gold mining companies, $BTC.

The tariff chatter is enough. In the next essay, I will focus on why USDCNY could reach 10.00, since there is no scenario under which Xi Jinping agrees to calm Trump. This would be the super-bazooka needed to push toward $100 million—100billion dollars—$BTC.

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Here, Arthur Hayes believes the yuan will fall sharply to 10.00 due to China not backing down and facing confrontation with the U.S. (note: slight formatting)

· Increased global economic uncertainty due to yuan depreciation → rising demand for safe assets (gold, Bitcoin).

· Inflationary pressure from tariffs → decline in fiat currency value → rise in Bitcoin value.

· Demand from Chinese investors to preserve assets → increased Bitcoin purchases.

· Correlation between gold and Bitcoin → gold price rise may spill over to Bitcoin.

· Trump administration policies (tariff hikes, reduced trust in the U.S. dollar) → tailwind for Bitcoin

In any case, inflation progress and the depreciation of fiat currency seem to push up Bitcoin’s price.

Since gold is not subjected to tariffs, it is also focused on, so gold together with Bitcoin may rise as a store of value.

◯ Response to tariffs on China

President Trump has stated that if by April 8 China does not retract the tariff increase to 34%, he will impose an additional 50% tariff on China. China’s stock market recorded the worst daily drop since 2008.

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(This article has been distributed since 2016)

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [April 8]