Today also a rush of policy rate announcements! ~ Highlights and schedule for December 20 ~

The FOMC policy rate announced this morning rose as expected. The forecast for the number of rate hikes next year has been revised from three to two. However, the press conference was not as doveish as anticipated, with some hawkish remarks. Today, policy rate announcements will continue from Japan, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Mexico. It is likely to be the last event of the year. Market participants may begin to thin out rapidly.

◎ Today's Points of Attention

1)Kuroda's Bank of Japan Press Conference

With the United States and Canada in a rate-hike stance, Europe ending easing policy and moving toward tightening, how will the Bank of Japan act? How do they view the path forward? Also, the scale of easing policy is of concern. Have they reached the target amount? If not, might easing be scaled back? Will the limits of easing policy arrive? The press conference warrants attention.

2)Policy Rate Announcements by Countries

Today, in addition to the Bank of Japan, the United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Sweden, and Mexico are scheduled to announce policy rates.

In the UK, a hold is expected, but all eyes are on the statement and the MPC voting distribution. Given the increasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, how are they viewing the outlook? Attention is required.

Also, in Mexico, a rate hike is expected, but if they hold, the Mexican peso could accelerate its decline. The peso has remained weak against the dollar. If a hold occurs, further lows may be possible. This is noteworthy.

3)Moves After the FOMC

The rate hike this morning has caused a significant drop in the Dow. Will this trend carry into Asia and Europe? The dollar/yen has shifted slightly toward dollar buying, but upside seems heavy. How far will dollar buying continue?

Additionally, there may be criticisms of rate hikes from President Trump and others. We will watch how markets respond to these remarks.

Personally, I think dollar buying will not continue and will tilt toward dollar selling. It diverged a bit from my expectation, but I plan to time and try selling dollars.

Dollar-Selling Strategy Initiated by FOMC! – Dollar Selling Strategy on December 20

Additionally, with the FOMC finished, many people will head into Christmas and year-end holidays. With fewer market participants, unexpected price movements can occur. I will manage risk carefully.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

12/20 (Thursday)

09:30　AUDEmployment Change and Unemployment Rate
Around noon　JPY Bank of Japan Policy Rate Announcement
15:30　JPYKuroda Bank of Japan Governor Press Conference
17:30　SEK　Sweden Policy Rate Announcement
18:30　GBP　Retail Sales
21:00　GBPBOE Policy Rate Announcement and MPC Voting Distribution
22:00　CZK　Czech Policy Rate Announcement
22:30　USD　Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

12/21 (Friday)

04:00　MXNMexico Policy Rate Announcement
08:30　JPY　CPI (Consumer Price Index)