Will the 4/3 Trump tariff panic cause USD/JPY to reach 147.379?

Good morning
It's a Trump tariff panic, isn't it~

Speculators with short yen positions are smirking

Today we will wait for calm

The dollar-yen is crashing, but the expectation that the Fed will cut rates has faded

If speculation rises, the dollar-yen may rebound

But looking at the daily chart, there is still a possibility of further decline

Nikkei futures are plunging, and after 9 o'clock the dollar-yen may accelerate its decline

Chart segments

Dollar-Yen daily chart

Looking at the monthly pivot
We should also expect around the 147 yen area in the lower part

Retracement around the 149 yen in the lower half

4-hour chart

It is rebounding at the weekly pivot S2, but
while writing this report, it briefly fell through

Whether it will return to S1 at 149.061

1-hour chart

15-minute chart

The latest drop's 0.382 retracement and the half retracement at the current moment

are plotted with the orange and green lines

There is a lower daily pivot S2, but it has already broken

this will act as a wall in the opposite direction

How far it will fall today

Daily pivot S3 is 147.379

Mutual tariff announcements

Mr. Trump said he would impose a minimum 10% tariff on all exports to the United States,

and would apply an even higher tariff rate to about 60 countries/regions with large trade deficits with the United States.

As indicated by the revealed charts,

tariffs would be 34% for China, 20% for the European Union, 24% for Japan, and 46% for Vietnam

Inflation in the United States would rise sharply,

and discontent could turn toward the Trump administration


The tariffs were initially met with dollar selling because the number was a gentle 10%,

but later Japan's announcement of 24% caused the yen to rise

The initial reaction was risk-off,

and the dollar-yen fell to the lower 148 yen range


Considering the nature of the Trump administration,

they would first throw a high ball,

and later, through negotiations, the tax rate would be lowered

In that case, ultimately

the small tax rate is possible, but

the market impact would be large, leading to panic.

Gradually, we expect the dollar-yen to rebound.