The USD/JPY is rising by lifting its lower bound; aiming for 150.147?
Good morning
March U.S. manufacturing activity entered contraction territory for the first time this year.
Meanwhile, as tariffs affect the entire economy, input prices rose sharply again from the previous month
As a result, it temporarily fell significantly
Weekly pivot points were in focus, and there was a reversal to the upside
On the 15-minute chart, the lows are being made higher
How far will this rise continue?
Today’s Chart Analysis
4-hour chart
The range inside the orange weekly pivot
Ahead of tonight’s tariff implementation by Trump, will this range break?
1-hour chart
From the recent decline, a 50% retracement is below the 200 MA
15-minute chart
GMMA is rising
If it forms a pullback and continues higher, around 149.50 perhaps?
There are weekly pivot and daily pivot (thin orange line) nearby
I feel there is a wall around this area
Whether it rises or falls, it may overrun this line and come back
However, if tariffs are implemented and it rises strongly, 150.742 on the Daily Pivot R2 is also anticipated
Washington Post: “20% tariff on most goods”
According to the Washington Post
that would impose a 20% tariff on most goods imported into the United States.
In response to this, the euro/yen fell slightly.
However, if a 20% tariff is truly imposed,
domestic inflation would surge dramatically,
and a recession would be highly likely.
The stock market would also fall sharply.
During Trump’s first term, tariffs were implemented cautiously
compared to now,
but the policy is very hasty, risking unforeseen economic crises
and appears somewhat insensitive,
yet debt rollover issues are becoming evident
With tariff policy, USD/JPY has moved up and down
and has been volatile. If a 20% tariff is actually implemented,
the dollar would strengthen, but in a risk-off scenario, the yen will be bought as well
the USD/JPY tug-of-war is likely to continue
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