3/23 USD/JPY This week’s movement I’ve imagined fully: it’s a sell on rallies

Good morning

Through important events like the BOJ and the FOMC

In the end, from a broad perspective, it's a range market

There seems to be a tendency for USD/JPY to rise until April due to anomalies, but what do you think

After that, it will fall though…

What I'm paying attention to now

When viewed on a longer time frame

the so-called "Marr Alsago (Marr-Alargo) agreement"


The Trump administration sought to weaken the dollar to boost U.S. export competitiveness

And in the first half of this year, in order to reduce the burden of government bonds interest payments

they want to refinance into low-interest government bonds

Therefore, they seem to want to lower interest rates

Correspondingly, speculative funds have been buying a large amount of yen

However, if that unwind occurs

the USD/JPY would rise

More and more people are pointing this out, but what do you think

Lately, is the USD/JPY buying in anticipation of that?

Whether it's really position adjustment is a bit subtle

In front of the big events BOJ and FOMC, some position adjustments have apparently been made

Yen positions are decreasing

The overall trend is lower

If there is a sharp short-term pullback, it might be good to consider selling

Chart analysis

USD/JPY weekly chart

It is a rally after forming a double top and then dropping
In the recent decline, will it retrace to the orange 0.382 Fibonacci level

Green is the 0.5 retracement line

Daily chart

Short-term GMMA is turning upward

Bollinger bands are flattening, suggesting a range-bound market

Thin pivot lines are monthly lines for R1 and S1

A reference for position trading

Near the pivot there is a red 200-day moving average acting as a barrier

4-hour chart

Pivot lines are weekly lines

A reference for swing trading

I marked orange and red around R1 and S1

R1 is descending, but S1 is mixed

There are moments where price reversed near these lines

It is pressured lower by the 200 MA

GMMA and 20 MA are also turning up

This week, will it break the 200 MA

Bottom-fishing long positions may be envisaged
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I will show this week's pivot lines tomorrow

1-hour chart