As USD/JPY buying pressure weakens on 3/21, is there a rebound at the fixing? Or more importantly, EUR/JPY?
Good morning
After yesterday's sharp drop on the FOMC, the rebound
has been limited to the 0.382 Fibonacci level
Today, might we go and look lower again?
In that case, how far will it fall
If there is no new low, the uptrend will resume
Chart Analysis
4-hour chart
It fell from breaking the 4-hour uptrend line,
but it did not rise again after breaking it
The buying pressure also seems to be weakening
Right now it is at the stage of breaking 148.195
1-hour chart
It is being held by the blue line
Whether it breaks above here or the 20 MA
It seems like a range may continue for a while
15-minute chart
It was moving within an ascending channel
Now it may break lower with a flag break, or revert higher and continue the uptrend, a crossroad
Today a new pivot line has been added
R1 is near 149.119, close to the green half-retrace line
Pivot is at 148.641
S1 is at 148.332
The chart tends to converge to the pivot, so
should we first expect a drop?
The FRB slowdowns quantitative tightening pace
At the FOMC, growth outlooks
were revised downward, and inflation forecasts
instead rose. If you only look at the numbers,
the risk of stagflation
becomes evident, and the dollar/yen is sold,
while US equities welcomed lower interest rates,
rising
Trump’s tariffs have made the FRB’s job
much more difficult
The Swiss National Bank trimmed rates as expected,
and this rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end,
as European stocks were all pushed into profit-taking,
and with Germany's policy shift,
European stocks rising and the euro progressing
appears to be entering a corrective phase
However, since this seems like a correction,
buying the euro where it softens could be worthwhile?
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